PLEASE NOTE:


*


>From Max Wallis <WallisMK@Cardiff.ac.uk>

Press Release  7 January 2003

Controversial environmental author found guilty of 'scientific dishonesty'

Bjrn Lomborg, author of the controversial anti-green critique 'The
Skeptical Environmentalist', has been found guilty of scientific dishonesty
by a well-respected committee in his home country Denmark.

Lomborg came to prominence in August 2001 when the publication of his book
caused great controversy within the scientific and environmental communities
in both Europe and the United States. It was favourably reviewed in much of
the non-specialist media, especially the Economist, the New York Times, and
the Sunday Times. The Guardian ran extended extracts in its G2 supplement,
and at the recent Earth Summit in Johannesburg, Lomborg was given a slot on
BBC2 on which to expound his theories.

Today's judgement in effect upholds what Lomborg's critics have always
claimed - that his work is scientifically fraudulent and seriously
misleading. Danish scientists expect the ruling to
threaten his position as Director of Denmark's Institute for Enviromental
Valuation, to which he was appointed by the country's new right-wing
government in March 2002.

The Danish Committee on Scientific Dishonesty, which brings together some of
the most senior members of Denmark's scientific establishment, spent much of
2002 considering the evidence before concluding today that Lomborg had
"clearly acted at variance with good scientific practice".

The Committee's ruling continued: "There has been such perversion of the
scientific message in the form of systematically biased representation that
the objective criteria for upholding scientific dishonesty... have been
met." Although the Committee did not feel able to conclude that Lomborg had
misled his readers deliberately, this was only because the scientists
considering the case felt that Lomborg might simply have misunderstood the
issues he was working on.

Jeff Harvey, a former editor of the prestigious scientific journal Nature
and currently a Senior Scientist at the Netherlands Institute of Ecology,
was one of the original complainants who took the case to the Danish
committee.  He said: "It is unfortunate that I and many others felt it
necessary to take Lomborg and his book to task for the veritable deluge of
inaccuracies it contains, but Lomborg has veered well across the line that
divides controversial, if not competent, science from unrepentant
incompetence."

He continued: "Lomborg has failed time and again to rectify the egregious
distortions he makes, he has based his conclusions on cherry-picking the
studies he likes, and he has seriously undermined the public's understanding
of important contemporary scientific issues. Scientists must be held
accountable for serious transgressions that are committed without
responsibility, and this judgement goes at least some way to underlining
Lomborg's dishonesty."

Notes to editors:

1. The Danish Committee on Scientific Dishonesty's judgement is available in
full on
http://www.forsk.dk/uvvu/nyt/udtaldebat/bl_decision.htm. It meets under the
aegis of the Danish Research Agency, and has email forsk@forsk.dk. Tel: + 45
3544 6200. Alternatively, contact
marklynas@zetnet.co.uk (for telephone numbers see below).

2. Jeff Harvey is available for comment on the following telephone numbers:
+31 26 47 91 312 (work) and +31 318 62 30 84 (home) or email:
harvey@cto.nioo.knaw.nl

3. Senior Danish scientist Carsten Rahbek can speak to the media about the
significance of the decision within the country's scientific community.  He
can be reached at +45 38 79 48 60 (home)
and +45 35 32 10 30 (work)

4. There is also a UK-based website containing critiques of Lomborg's work
on www.anti-lomborg.com.  For more assistance on any UK angle contact Mark
Lynas on 01865 711424 or 07811 456824.


*

CCNet TERRA 1/2003 -  8 January 2003
------------------------------------

"It seems the whole Northern Hemisphere is being swept up in a deep
freeze stretching all the way from the USA to Japan to China, India,
Bangladesh, Russia, eastern Europe, and now northern Europe. Those
countries which were wise enough not to degrade their regular power
sources for the new 'green' sources are well placed to ride through this
period. However, some countries have been foolish enough not to
maintain their traditional sources and these are now paying the penalty
with insufficient power to meet consumer needs for heating and the prospect
of massive electricity bills for consumers."
--John Daly, 7 January 2003


"Rocks deposited by glaciers on mountain ranges in West Antarctica
have given scientists the most direct evidence yet that parts of the ice
sheet are on a long-term, natural trajectory of melting. The West
Antarctic Ice Sheet has been melting and contributing water continuously
to the ocean for the last 10,000 years and is likely to keep doing so, says
John Stone, University of Washington associate professor of Earth and space
sciences."
--Sandra Hines, University of Washington, 2 January 2003


"Growing fears that pollution is damaging European forests beyond
repair may have been ungrounded, according to research showing that
wooded areas are actually thriving. A European Forests Institute study of
39 countries suggests that forests across the continent may actually
be helped by continued carbon dioxide emissions and the new evidence
suggests they may have already greatly benefited from the phenomenon
of human-created or anthropogenic CO2."
--Deutsche Welle, 6 January 2003


(1) COLD SPELL TRIGGERS POWER CRISIS IN NORTHERN EUROPE
    www.john-daly.com, 7 January 2003

(2) FROZEN CHINA
    www.John-Daly.com, 4 January 2003

(3) ASIA FREEZES
    www.John-Daly.com, 5 January 2003

(4) COLD, COLD, COLD: NEW YEAR COMES IN WITH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
    Helsingin Sanomat, 2 January 2003

(6) KYOTO PROTOCOL IN ACTION: FINNS TOLD TO CUT DOWN SAUNA HABIT AS COLD
BITES
    Reuters, 3 January 2003

(7) SEVERE COLD WREAKS HAVOC IN EUROPE, KILLS 200 IN POLAND
    The Irish Examiner, 6 January 2003

(8) FREEZING TEMPERATURES KILL MORE THAN 200 IN MOSCOW ALONE
    The Times, 2 January 2003

(9) COLD SPELL KILLS 250 IN INDIA AND BANGLADESH
    CNN, 2 January 2003

(10) COLD SPELL KILLS SIX IN BAGUIO
    The Philippine Star 7 January 2003

(11) NORTH VIETNAM'S LONG COLD SPELL
     Agence France Press, 7 January 2003

(12) SHOCK, HORROR: EUROPEAN FORESTS THRIVING IN HIGH OZONE AREAS
     Deutsche Welle, 6 January 2003

(13) ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET HAS BEEN MELTING NATURALLY FOR 10,000 YEARS
     Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>

(14) ANTARCTIC ICEBERGS: HAVE THEIR NUMBERS BEEN INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO
GLOBAL WARMING?
     CO2 Science Magazine, 8 January 2003

(15) SNOW DATA CONTRADICT IPCC PREDICTIONS
     CO2 Science Magazine, 8 January 2003

(16) RE: DEEP FREEZE CLIMATE SCARE GATHERING MOMENTUM
     S. Fred Singer <singer@sepp.org>

(17) AND FINALLY: TOP UK SCIENTIST PREDICTS GLOBAL WARMING WILL "DESTROY
WESTERN CIVILISATION"
     The Sunday Times, 5 January 2003

====
(1) COLD SPELL TRIGGERS POWER CRISIS IN NORTHERN EUROPE

>From www.john-daly.com, 7 January 2003

It seems the whole Northern Hemisphere is being swept up in a deep freeze
stretching all the way from the USA to Japan to China, India, Bangladesh,
Russia, eastern Europe, and now northern Europe.

Those countries which were wise enough not to degrade their regular power
sources for the new `green' sources are well placed to ride through this
period. However, some countries have been foolish enough not to maintain
their traditional sources and these are now paying the penalty with
insufficient power to meet consumer needs for heating and the prospect of
massive electricity bills for consumers.

Finland  finds itself with a shortfall of about 10% on power, making up the
difference with imported power from Sweden and Russia. Pity about all those
windmills with blades hanging limp just when you need them most.

Norway is similarly hit. No new national power plant has been built for 10
years or so because of environmental politics. Plans for two new natural gas
plants were also ditched a few years ago. Production is now to low to keep
up with demand in a normal year. Two elderly Oslo residents died after they
were found in unheated apartments.

Also in Norway, electricity prices have risen three-fold in only a few
months as demand-driven consumption is forcing up prices in a recently
de-regulated market.

What makes this problem all the more serious is that these countries have
very long nights at this time of year, making the freezing cold virtually
permanent with little relief from higher daytime temperatures.

A word of advice to our Nordic friends. Forget Kyoto. Forget the green
delusions. Forget the UN doomsayers and their 'consensus'. Go build a few
coal or gas power plants and put this nightmare behind you. If 'global
warming' were that real, this would not be happening.

==========
(2) FROZEN CHINA

>From www.John-Daly.com, 4 January 2003

China is currently breaking cold and snow records, but this is not being
reported by the western press. Had it been the other way around - warm
events - the media would have been salivating about global warming.

Here is how the Chinese People's Daily is reporting it

"Yellow River Frozen along 1,211 Kilometers"   
China's 5,400-km Yellow River has frozen along a course of about 1,211
kilometers so far this winter, according to sources with the Yellow River
Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

"Snow Hits Northern Guangdong"
Snow has been falling in the northern mountain areas of south China's
Guangdong Province over the past few days, a rare sight in these areas.

"Heavy Snow in Beijing Spells Joy And Trouble" 
As streams of pedestrians and vehicles inched along Beijing's streets
Monday, China's capital city has been blanketed by falling snow for six days
in a row -- its longest consecutive snowfall for the last 128 years.

"Taklimakan Covered with Thick Snow"  
Taklimakan, the largest desert in China and one of the largest moving ones
in the world, has got a 14-cm deposit of snow due to consecutive snowing
since December 18.

=========
(3) ASIA FREEZES

>From www.John-Daly.com, 5 January 2003

The freezing weather in China reported above has also spread far beyond
China. Anomalous cold weather is also being reported in India, where upwards
of 250 people are reported to have died from weather related causes. Bangla
Desh has seen 119 such deaths. Japan has seen disruptions to transport
services including up to 2,000 people being stranded on trains. Taiwan has
seen wintry weather sufficient to threaten native wild life. Even tropical
Vietnam has not been spared where a cold spell has hit northern Vietnam with
average temperatures dropping sharply from 13 to 4 degrees Celsius.
Ironically, these are the very countries who the European Union and the
Greens imagine will cheerfully sign up to `Son of Kyoto' in 2012.

==========
(4) COLD, COLD, COLD: NEW YEAR COMES IN WITH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES

>From Helsingin Sanomat, 2 January 2002
http://www.helsinki-hs.net/news.asp?id=20030102IE4

Finland is known in the wider world as a country of extreme cold, but we
tend to shrug these matters off, knowing that the nation's infrastructure is
built to withstand climatic extremes, and that it takes more than a dip in
the mercury to stop the trains or prevent the snowploughs from keeping the
roads clear.

All this being said, the last few days have tested Finnish resolve, as
record winter lows were reached in many places and district heating systems
hiccupped, leaving several thousand people without warmth when they would
sorely have needed it.

The winter's unofficial record low temperature now stands at -40.3C, posted
on New Year's Eve in Toholampi, in Central Ostrobothnia. This narrowly
defeated a reading in the Lapland ski resort of Salla on Monday night. We
are nevertheless a good 10 degrees short of the all-time record of -51.5C
set in 1999.

Things are unlikely to get much better very fast. An area of very cold air
is going to remain over central and northern districts of the country until
the other side of the coming weekend. Things will thaw out a little in the
south of Finland, but conditions even down here will remain decidedly
Arctic, according to the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

Curiously enough, the very far north of the country has not had it quite so
bad. In Utsjoki (about as far as you can go without hitting Norway and the
Arctic Ocean) on New Year's Day it was only -10C, while Helsinki shivered
around 15 degrees below this. The cold was compounded by a light northerly
wind that reduced the real temperature by a further several degrees.

Electricity consumption has naturally peaked with the cold spell. On New
Year's Eve at around 6pm, the all-time Finnish record for consumption was
reached, at 13,650 MW. There were no problems despite the large drain on the
system, as power was imported from Russia and also from the joint-Nordic
electricity market via Sweden and Norway.

However, pipe breakages and faults in the district heating network led to
thousands going without warm radiators and hot water in Kerava (just outside
Helsinki), Oulu, and Rovaniemi. In Kerava the indoor temperature in several
homes dipped to around 10C on Tuesday evening. By Wednesday the problem at
the local heating plant had been fixed and people could take off their fur
coats once more.

This morning, local train services in the Greater Helsinki area were also
badly hit as people returned to work after the New Year's break. A number of
trains were taken out of service in the early morning as the extreme cold
interfered with hydraulic braking systems, and this caused widespread
cancellations and gave commuters a chilly wait on platforms. By around 9 am,
schedules were returning to normal.

The unusually early arrival of severe winter conditions has also caused the
icebreaker fleet to move fast. On Thursday a sixth icebreaker, the Botnica,
will head out from Helsinki's Katajanokka for the Gulf of Finland, where it
will join the Voima in keeping sea-lanes open. The ice in the northern part
of the Gulf of Bothnia is already around 50cm thick, and Kontio has been up
there shepherding merchant shipping since mid-November. She was joined
recently by Otso, Urho, and Fennica.

Late News: This winter's minimum temperature figure has been rewritten, with
the town of Kuhmo (famed for its Chamber Music Festival) moving into the
lead on Wednesday night with an impressive score of -41.3C. This is of
course still well short of our all-time low, and positively balmy when set
alongside the world record of -89.2C set at the Vostok Research Station in
Antarctica one July day in 1983.

Just to give some balance, Finland's record high dates from July 1914, when
Turku enjoyed 35.9C, and the January maximum belongs to Mariehamn in the
land Islands, where the temperature crept up to +10.9C in January 1973.

Copyright 2002, Helsingin Sanomat

=============
(6) KYOTO PROTOCOL IN ACTION: FINNS TOLD TO CUT DOWN SAUNA HABIT AS COLD
BITES

>From Reuters, 3 January 2003
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=scienceNews&storyID=1987296

HELSINKI (Reuters) - Finns have been told to cut down on one of their
favorite comforts during the most bitter winter in decades -- the sauna.

A dry cold snap in the Nordic country has sent electricity prices soaring to
record levels, so the government has recommended ways to cut bills. These
have even encroached on many Finns' sacred retreat after a long day.

"The suggested sauna heat is 70-80 degrees Celsius. One hundred degrees, for
example, adds up to 30 percent to energy costs," the statement said late on
Thursday.

"Many people can fit in a typical sauna, and they don't spend too much time
in the shower."

Media have called the winter one of the coldest for four decades. The dry
spell has caused water levels in reservoirs in the Nordic region, which
depends heavily on hydro power, to drop drastically.

Parts of northern and eastern Finland have seen temperatures plunge to minus
40 Celsius (minus 40 Fahrenheit) or colder, and even in the capital Helsinki
temperatures have hovered around an unusually cold minus 20 Celsius.

Copyright 2003, Reuters

============
(7) SEVERE COLD WREAKS HAVOC IN EUROPE, KILLS 200 IN POLAND

>From The Irish Examiner, 6 January 2003
http://www.online.ie/news/irish_examiner/viewer.adp?article=1920879
  
SEVERE winter weather has wreaked havoc across Europe, with nearly 200
people freezing to death in Poland, two killed by storms in Germany and
floods threatening several European countries.
Most of the 183 victims of Poland's bitterly-cold winter were men who died
of hypothermia after drinking heavily and falling sleep outside, police
said.

===========
(8) FREEZING TEMPERATURES KILL MORE THAN 200 IN MOSCOW ALONE

>From The Times, 2 January 2003

>From Clem Cecil in Moscow
 
POLICE and ambulance workers call them "snowdrops", after the first flowers
to emerge in the spring thaw.

They are Russia's frozen homeless, whose icy bodies are picked up daily.
Since the beginning of winter, 215 have been found in Moscow alone.

Temperatures plummeted to -20C (-4F) almost every night in December, well
below the seasonal average of around -5C (23F) , making it a desperate
winter for the city's 100,000 homeless.

Already the death toll from hypothermia has doubled from last year and the
authorities admit that they are fighting a losing battle....

==========
(9) COLD SPELL KILLS 250 IN INDIA AND BANGLADESH

>From CNN, 2 January 2002
http://asia.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/south/01/02/india.cold.ap/

NEW DELHI, India (AP) -- Cold weather sweeping across northern India and
Bangladesh has killed more than 250 people in the last few weeks, news
reports and officials have said.

In Bangladesh, the death toll from a fall-winter cold spell rose to 200,
when 10 elderly men and women died in the northern districts of Rangpur,
Gaibandha and Pabna on Wednesday, the Janakantha newspaper reported.

Government officials in Dhaka, Bangladesh's capital, confirmed there had
been deaths from the cold, but declined to say how many.

In India's northern Uttar Pradesh state, at least 59 people have died from
cold since early December, including 19 after the mercury plummeted from
Christmas Day, a state Home Ministry official said on condition of
anonymity.

Temperatures in some areas of neighboring Himachal Pradesh state plunged to
minus 10 degrees Celsius (14 Fahrenheit) on Wednesday, while Srinagar in
Jammu-Kashmir state recorded minus 5 degrees Celsius (23 Fahrenheit).

=========
(10) COLD SPELL KILLS SIX IN BAGUIO

>From The Philippine Star 7 January 2003
http://www.philstar.com/philstar/News200301070404.htm

By Artemio Dumlao

BAGUIO CITY - A Siberian chill and the cold front have claimed six lives in
the highlands.

Two elderly persons and four children died after temperatures dropped in
Baguio City, triggering their asthma and causing pneumonia, health officials
here said... Meanwhile, residents along the famous Mountain Trail near
Halsema Highway in Benguet are experiencing temperatures at least two
degrees lower than the chill in Baguio.

These low temperatures are sending fear throughout the vast vegetable
plantations in the country's Salad Capital that frost may cause crop damage.
During these months last year, farmers in Benguet lost millions of pesos
woerth of harvestable and budding vegetables due to the heavy frost that
damaged the crops.

===========
(11) NORTH VIETNAM'S LONG COLD SPELL

>From Agence France Press, 7 January 2003
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/asia/story/0,4386,164566,00.html

BITING westerly winds have left residents in northern Vietnam shivering from
the earliest and longest spell of cold weather the country has faced in 18
years.

Average temperatures in the north have dropped to around 13 deg C,
plummeting to minus six in some parts of the mountainous border provinces of
Lao Cai and Lang Son.

The authorities in Vinh Phuc province, just north of the capital, have
advised farmers to let their buffalos and cows into their houses and to
stock food for them. --AFP

==========
(12) SHOCK, HORROR: EUROPEAN FORESTS THRIVING IN HIGH OZONE AREAS

>From Deutsche Welle, 6 January 2002
http://www.dw-world.de/english/0,3367,1446_A_740394_1_A,00.html
 
Growing fears that pollution is damaging European forests beyond repair may
have been ungrounded, according to research showing that wooded areas are
actually thriving.

A European Forests Institute study of 39 countries suggests that forests
across the continent may actually be helped by continued carbon dioxide
emissions and the new evidence suggests they may have already greatly
benefited from the phenomenon of human-created or anthropogenic CO2.

Air pollution by other damaging gases has been significantly reduced in
central Europe over the past two decades while ozone levels have been on the
rise, according to research collected from European databases that include
ozone measurements from about 100 stations in Austria and Germany.

The study, covering forests from Portugal to the Urals in Russia, shows what
German ecologists had been fearing for two decades - that their woodlands
are in danger.

However, even though the amounts of ozone reported across Germany and
Austria have exceeded the United Nations critical level, known as AOT40, by
approximately seven times and have been shown to reduce tree growth by 10
percent in controlled experiments, the expected ecological disaster has not
materialized.

In these areas of Germany and Austria where a seven-fold level has been
reported, the forests are far from devastated. Experts studying the
phenomena have reported that not only is there no sign of damage, but in
fact there have been marked improvements in the health of trees and growth
in the crown areas at the top of the trees has increased.

Instead of dying, trees are thriving on CO2

The research report shows that under present ozone levels, the trees in the
target grid section in Germany and Austria do show some reduction of
photosynthetic CO2 absorption. This is particularly evident in old trees at
high altitudes where the levels of ozone are much more extreme, and in trees
that are experiencing "additional climatic stress."

However, the researchers are quick to point out that the reductions in
carbon dioxide being absorbed by the trees "are in no proportion to the
massive excess of the AOT40."

So what does this all mean and how is it possible? With levels so high and
evidence showing reduction in tree growth at a fraction of these current
levels, trees across Europe should be suffering a 70 percent reduction in
growth, according to research. Instead, growth conditions seem to have
improved almost everywhere, except at high altitudes and under conditions of
more-than-usual climatic stress.

One possible suggestion is that the once-adequate critical level of ozone
exposure is no longer suitable for research purposes. But why? Researchers
suggest that the answer comes not from using the level of atmospheric ozone
as the critical level but the ozone dose absorbed by the trees. This would
mean a new level based on the ability of certain leaves to absorb carbon
dioxide.

Increasing levels of climactic change may be protection

According to researchers, these findings suggest that the continuous
changing of the Earth's atmospheric conditions must be taken into
consideration when monitoring the effects of pollution on European forests.
Predicted damage by ozone poisoning may have been offset by the increasing
amounts of other gases and climactic factors arriving in the air surrounding
the planet.

The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change in the United
States supports the theory that the trees have adapted in a way to reduce
ozone damage. The Arizona-based research body believes that the lack of
ozone damage in the forests of central Europe may well be the result of
benefits arising from rising levels of CO2 content in the air.

If it is proved that rising CO2 levels are in some way protecting the trees,
experts can only wonder at the widespread damage that will occur if this
changes and the forests begin to show the catastrophic effects that have
been predicted for the past 20 years.
 
Copyright 2002, Deutsche Welle

==========
(13) ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET HAS BEEN MELTING NATURALLY FOR 10,000 YEARS

>From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>

University of Washington
Seattle, Washington

FROM: Sandra Hines, 206-543-2580, shines@u.washington.edu

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Jan. 2, 2003

Hitchhiking rocks provide details of glacial melting in West Antarctic

Rocks deposited by glaciers on mountain ranges in West Antarctica have given
scientists the most direct evidence yet that parts of the ice sheet are on a
long-term, natural trajectory of melting.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been melting and contributing water
continuously to the ocean for the last 10,000 years and is likely to keep
doing so, says John Stone, University of Washington associate professor of
Earth and space sciences.

Measuring and understanding changes in the Earth's ice sheets over the past
few decades, and predicting their future behavior are major challenges of
modern glaciology. But it is important to view these changes in the context
of what's been happening naturally over centuries and millennia. This work
establishes a background pattern of steady decline in the West Antarctic ice
sheet, Stone says. If melting continues at the same pace in future, the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet -- about 360,000 square miles, or about the size of
Texas and Colorado combined -- would melt away in another 7,000 years.

It is still unknown if that process is being speeded by human-caused warming
of the oceans and atmosphere, Stone says, but because much of the bedrock
beneath the ice is below sea level, the ice sheet could be particularly
susceptible to any future thinning and warming of the oceans around its
edges.

The ice sheet contains enough water to raise global sea level by about 5
meters, or 16 to 17 feet, but says Stone, lead author of a paper in the Jan.
3 issue of the journal Science. "A rapid melting event that released even a
small faction of this amount could have disastrous consequences for coastal
regions".

Previous research inferred the history of the ice sheet indirectly, from
such things as changing beach levels or volcanic debris. In this study, the
scientists gathered rocks deposited by glaciers on mountain peaks and dated
them using a new technique that allowed them to track the thinning of the
ice sheet over the last few thousand years. The scientists believe they have
documented the retreating margins of the ice like never before.

A research grant and logistic support from the National Science Foundation
made it possible for researchers to visit seven peaks in the Ford Ranges, a
series of mountain ranges near the Ross Sea. The Ford Ranges are one of only
a handful of places in West Antarctica where mountains protrude through the
ice sheet.

Even the peaks of the Ford Ranges -- some that now jut nearly half a mile
above the ice surface -- were buried by ice 10,000 years ago, only emerging
after glaciers scraped down their flanks. In the process, the glaciers left
behind time capsules of a sort: rocks ranging in size from bricks to
boulders that hitched rides inside glaciers until the ice melted away,
leaving the rocks stranded high and dry on the mountainsides.

As the covering layer of ice thinned and disappeared, the rocks were exposed
to bombardment by cosmic rays, altering their isotopic makeup. Using a
particle accelerator to count the cosmic ray-produced atoms in a rock allows
scientists to determine its age and, as a result, the time the glacier and
rock parted ways.

"In all cases we got very tight, consistent correlations of age with
altitude, so we are able to track the margins of the ice sheet coming down
the mountain sides with this approach," Stone says. The most surprising
aspect is how recently the ice has thinned in West Antarctica. Ice
sheets which once covered huge areas of North America and Europe had all but
disappeared by 10,000 years ago. Deglaciation in West Antarctica had only
just begun by that time. Hundreds of meters of ice have since disappeared,
under climatic conditions very similar to the present day.

"The Ice Age never really came to an end in that part of the world," Stone
says.

Co-authors on the Science paper are Gregory Balco and Seth Cowdery,
University of Washington graduate students in earth and space sciences
(Cowdery was an undergraduate at Colorado College when the work was done);
David Sugden, professor of geography, University of Edinburgh, Scotland;
Marc Caffee, associate professor of physics, Purdue University (he was with
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory when the work was done); Louis Sass,
National Outdoor Leadership School (an undergraduate student at Colorado
College when the work was done) and Christine Siddoway, professor of
geology, Colorado College.

For more information:
Stone, 206-685-9514, stone@geology.washington.edu

See also report by BBC Online, News, 3 January 2003
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2624603.stm

===========
(14) ANTARCTIC ICEBERGS: HAVE THEIR NUMBERS BEEN INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO
GLOBAL WARMING?

CO2 Science Magazine, 8 January 2003
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2003/v6n2c1.htm

Reference
Long, D.G., Ballantyne, J. and Bertoia, C. 2002. Is the number of Antarctic
icebergs really increasing? EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union
83: 469, 474.

Background
According to Bindschadler and Rignot (2002), the production of icebergs in
the vicinity of Antarctica "appears to be on the rise in recent years,
increasing concern that this phenomenon portends some recent climatic
trend." This perception is also supported by data from the National Ice
Center (NIC), as noted by Long et al. (2002).

What was done
The authors used recently developed techniques that employ enhanced radar
scatterometer data to address the question of whether the increasing number
of icebergs reported by the NIC reflects a climate trend or changes in
observation tools.

What was learned
The authors conclude that "technological advances in iceberg observation and
tracking techniques explain much of the NIC's increasing iceberg count
through 1999," while noting that the rest of the increase is "clearly linked
to episodic calving events," which they describe as "an expected
phenomenon," since "major calvings occur every 50-100 years as an ice sheet
advances into the ocean (Jacobs et al., 1986)."  In this regard, for
example, they note that "the recent 10 May 2002 calving of C19 along the
edge of the Ross Ice Shelf was expected and probably finishes the Ross Ice
Shelf reduction initiated by the 1998 and 2000 calvings," with respect to
which they report that "a relationship between the formation of large,
tabular icebergs and climate trends has not been established (Lazzara et
al., 1999)."

What it means
Nothing unusual has been happening with respect to iceberg formation around
Antarctica over the past quarter century.  Indeed, the authors specifically
and emphatically state "we cannot conclude that the apparent increase in the
number of icebergs represents a climate trend."

What it means
Bindschadler, R.A. and Rignot, E.  2001. "Crack!" in the polar night. EOS,
Transactions, American Geophysical Union 82:497-498,505.

Jacobs, S.S., MacAyeal, D.R. and Ardai Jr., J.L. 1986. The recent advance of
the Ross Ice Shelf.  Journal of Glaciology 32: 464-474.

Lazzara, M.A., Jezek, K.C., Scambos, T.A., MacAyeal, D.R. and van der Veen,
C.J. 1999. On the recent calving of icebergs from the Ross Ice Shelf.  Polar
Geography 23: 201-212.
 
Copyright 2003. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change 

============
(15) SNOW DATA CONTRADICT IPCC PREDICTIONS

>From CO2 Science Magazine, 8 January 2003
http://www.co2science.org/subject/s/summaries/snow.htm

According to model scenarios described in the 2001 IPCC report, "as the
climate warms, Northern Hemispheric snow cover and sea-ice extent decrease."
In this summary, we evaluate the snow-cover portion of this claim by
examining historical trends in snowfall accumulation, snow season length and
snow cover extent to learn how these parameters have responded to the
warming that resulted in the demise of the Little Ice Age.

Using a 103-m ice core retrieved from a high-elevation site on Mount Logan
-- Canada's highest mountain -- which is located in the heavily-glaciated
Saint Elias region of the Yukon, as well as subsequent shallow coring and
snow-pit sampling, Moore et al. (2002) derived a snow accumulation record
for this region stretching from 1693 to 2000. Over the first half of the
record, i.e. 1693 to about 1850, there was no significant trend in snow
accumulation. After 1850, however, when Northern Hemispheric temperatures
began to rise, there was a positive trend, significant at the 95% confidence
level.

Complementary results are reported by Ye (2001), who analyzed first and last
snowfall dates for 139 stations throughout north central and northwest Asia
for the period 1937-1994.  Statistically significant increases in snow
season length were observed over much of the area studied, with most of the
stations having a trend "higher than 4 days per decade."  These increases in
snow season length, according to Ye, "can be attributed more to earlier
snowfall than to later last snowfall," although both phenomena played a role
in the overall lengthening of the snow season.  In the mean, the results of
this study indicate a lengthening of the snow season of somewhat more than
23 days over the 58-year period.  Since the mean snow season length of the
stations studied ranged from 60 to 260 days, this increase in snow season
length amounts to an extension of anywhere from 10 to 40%.

In a recent analysis of data from Canada, the United States, the former
Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China, Brown (2000) reconstructed
monthly snow cover extent over midlatitude (40-60N) regions of North
America and Eurasia back to 1915, finding that this reconstruction "provided
evidence of a general twentieth century increase in North American snow
cover extent, with significant increases in winter (December-February) snow
water equivalent averaging 3.9% per decade."  This finding, Brown notes, is
consistent with "evidence of increasing twentieth-century snowfall over
North America" and with "winter snow depth increases over Russia."  As an
aside, we also note that this phenomenon (1) would be expected to produce
more snowmelt in the spring and greater replenishment of soil moisture
reserves for the subsequent growth of agricultural crops and natural
vegetation, and (2) may well be acting as a negative feedback on warming by
increasing the amount of incoming solar radiation that is reflected back to
space (Herman et al., 2001).

In another study more localized in time and space, McConnell et al. (2000)
calculated changes in ice-sheet elevation in southern Greenland for the
years 1978-88 using "a physically based model of firn densification and
records of annual snow accumulation reconstructed from 12 ice cores at high
elevation." The changes they observed were found to be typical of those that
regularly occurred over the last few centuries and were primarily driven by
variability in snow accumulation. Hence, they too found no increase in
twentieth-century snowfall compared to that of earlier times.

In light of the results of the several studies listed above, the model-based
IPCC prediction of decreasing Northern Hemispheric snow cover with
increasing temperature appears not to be supported by the historical record.

References
Brown, R.D.  2000.  Northern hemisphere snow cover variability and change,
1915-1997.  Journal of Climate 13: 2339-2355.

Herman, J.R., Larko, D., Celarier, E. and Ziemke, J.  2001.  Changes in the
Earth's UV reflectivity from the surface, clouds, and aerosols.  Journal of
Geophysical Research 106: 5353-5368.

McConnell, J.R., Arthern, R.J., Mosley-Thompson, E., Davis, C.H., Bales,
R.C., Thomas, R., Burkhart, J.R. and Kyne, J.D.  2000.  Changes in Greenland
ice sheet elevation attributed primarily to snow accumulation variability.
Nature 406: 877-879.

Moore, G.W.K., Holdsworth, G. and Alverson, K.  2002.  Climate change in the
North Pacific region over the past three centuries.  Nature 420: 401-403.

Ye, H.  2001.  Increases in snow season length due to earlier first snow and
later last snow dates over North Central and Northwest Asia during 1937-94.
Geophysical Research Letters 28: 551-554.

Copyright 2003.  Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change


============================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR *
============================

(16) RE: DEEP FREEZE CLIMATE SCARE GATHERING MOMENTUM

>From S. Fred Singer <singer@sepp.org>

Dear Benny

The scare story on the Dec 17 Toronto Star (CCNet Terra, 19 December 2002)
deserves some comment. Someone should write them a letter and also copy the
proper people in the Canadian govt.

1. The story is based entirely on a speculative paper claiming that
increasing Arctic river flow will affect the North Atlantic thermohaline
circulation (THC) and thereby produce a major climate shift. (Bruce Peterson
et al, Science 298, 2171, Dec 13, 2002). They suggest (esp. co-author and
climate modeler Rahmstorf) that Global Warming is the cause of the increased
river flow. But when I look at their graph for evidence, I notice that the
flow increases even when the global climate cools (between 1940 and 1975).
The paper ignores this embarrassing problem.

2. The paper says nothing about the obvious remedy of geo-engineering: Water
transfer from Siberian rivers to the deserts of the former Soviet Union and
to the Aral Sea.

3. Nor does the paper mention the interesting work of R G Johnson (Eos 78,
227, 1997), who suggested that the THC could overturn as a result of the
increasing salinity of the Mediterranean outflow into the Atlantic  (as a
result of the damming of the Nile).  I find this hypothesis soundly based --
and it has nothing to do with Global Warming.

4. Most astounding is the statement by Gordon McBean that Kyoto will help
avert this horrible climate calamity about to befall Canada and Western
Europe. He knows (or should know)  that Kyoto -- even if punctiliously
observed -- will have only a minute and essentially unmeasurable effect on
the calculated temperature rise.  But Kyoto will assuredly damage the
Canadian energy industry by making it less competitive and therefore reduce
exports.

Best wishes                    
Fred

===============
(17) AND FINALLY: TOP UK SCIENTIST PREDICTS GLOBAL WARMING WILL "DESTROY
WESTERN CIVILISATION"

>From The Sunday Times, 5 January 2003
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-532525,00.html

...One of Britain's most respected scientists has predicted further
disruption caused by climate change. In a new book, The Story of Life,
published next week, Sir Richard Southwood, an Oxford zoology professor,
will warn that climate change is likely to "destroy western civilisation"
with food shortages, flooding and war as nations fight for dwindling
resources.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
CCNet is a scholarly electronic network. To subscribe/unsubscribe, please
contact the moderator Benny J Peiser < b.j.peiser@livjm.ac.uk >. Information
circulated on this network is for scholarly and educational use only. The
attached information may not be copied or reproduced for any other purposes
without prior permission of the copyright holders. The fully indexed archive
of the CCNet, from February 1997 on, can be found at
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/cccmenu.html. DISCLAIMER: The opinions,
beliefs and viewpoints expressed in the articles and texts and in other
CCNet contributions do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs and
viewpoints of the moderator of this network.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------



CCCMENU CCC for 2002

The content and opinions expressed on this Web page do not necessarily reflect the views of nor are they endorsed by the University of

The content and opinions expressed on this Web page do not necessarily reflect the views of nor are they endorsed by the University of Georgia or the University System of Georgia.