PLEASE NOTE:


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Subject: "Fire from the Sky" comments
To: cambridge-conference@livjm.ac.uk
Date sent: Tue, 25 Mar 1997 03:25:36 -0600 (CST)
From: pib@nwu.edu

On Sunday, March 23, 1997, the Turner Broadcasting System (TBS) channel
offered two documentaries collectively entitled "Disaster Sunday." The
first documentary, a National Geographic Explorer program, discussed
tsunamis and avalanches. The second documentary, entitled "Fire from the
Sky," discussed the threat from cosmic impacts. Here are my preliminary
comments after a single viewing of these documentaries.

I enjoyed the segment on tsunamis. I will comment on just a few items.
There is evidence that prehistoric tsunamis reached heights of over 300
meters in the Hawaiian islands. The favored explanation is that giant
landslides in the islands caused these tsunamis. This is possible, as
landslides have generated giant tsunamis elsewhere in recent times. (On
July 8, 1958, a landslide in Lituya Bay, Alaska, generated by an
earthquake, caused a tsunami to reach a height of about 525 meters
immediately across the bay.) I suggest that an impact event might offer
another plausible mechanism for causing tsunamis of this size. I was
surprised and pleased that Eddie Bernard mentioned impact-generated
tsunamis.

The oral traditions of native peoples of the Pacific Northwestern include
stories about giant waves. The Tollua people offered a tale of two
children whose grandmother urged them to flee the advancing water by
running to higher ground. When the two children returned to their village
after the waters receded, nothing was left. Everything -- and everyone --
was gone. This story certainly sounded like a genuine eyewitness account
of a destructive tsunami. Geologist Brian Atwater interpreted possible
traces of such a tsunami near Puget Sound about 300 years ago. He also
suggested another large tsunami occurred there about 1,000 years ago.
Perhaps the Tollua tale reflects one of these events.

There is a 10% chance of a major tsunami striking the Northwest coast of
the United States within the next 50 years. Many communities in the United
States are not prepared. This contrasts with the situation in Japan. Many
Japanese towns have spent large amounts of time and money constructing
giant anti-wave walls and training civil defense teams to deal with the
aftermath of a tsunami. Japan has felt the wrath of many tsunamis. One
particularly destructive 30 meter wave at Honshu, Japan in 1896 killed
about 27,000 people.

One of the problems is getting people to take the threat of tsunamis
seriously. For example, a predicted tsunami in Hawaii in 1994 resulted in
a wave only about an eighth of a meter (six inches) in height. A new buoy
system tied to satellites is currently being deployed which should allow for
better predictions of the size of tsunami waves.

Geologist Walter Dudley suggested that a destructive tsunami occurs in the
Pacific about once in every seven years. It appears we are overdue for the
next "big one."

The avalanche segment showed that triggering avalanches using explosives is
a standard practice in many areas. "We're killing avalanches and saving
people," said one of the interviewees. I was fascinated by the story of
the man buried alive by an avalanche, who, against all odds, dug himself out
after many hours. Unfortunately, he was not able to save his friend who
had also been buried.

"Fire from the Sky" followed. This was not a National Geographic special.
Overall I found the program enjoyable, but I liked the NBC National
Geographic special on Gene Shoemaker, and the Discovery Channel special on
impacts, better. One general peeve I have about all these programs: they
don't distinguish actual footage from animations. I believe this confuses
folks who aren't familiar enough with the subject matter -- the intended
audience, I assume -- to know the difference.

Gene Shoemaker, David Levy, Ed Tagliaferri, Jasper Wolf, and others started
the program by offering introductory comments outlining what was to follow.

Next came a dramatization of a possible nuclear strike in the British
Isles. This turned out to be a major accretion event involving a sequence
of multimegaton airbursts caused by cometary debris. (Comet Hale-Bopp was
unfortunately offered as the originating body. This will probably cause a
deluge of questions to astronomers by those not familiar with the actual
dynamics of the situation.) The dramatization concluded with the
destruction of an East Coast U. S. city. We saw the blast wave approach a
commentator who stood outside reporting on the bollide display. As the
blast wave overwhelmed her when she attempted to flee, the display blinked
out.

The program stated that the moon bears the scars of some 30,000 impacts.
(I believe this is actually only the number of craters on the Earth-facing
side of the moon. There are lots more craters on the far side :-}).
About 180 terrestrial impact craters have been discovered so far. Possibly
another 2,000 await discovery. Chicxulub was cited as the largest impact
crater at 300 miles (480 km) in diameter. (I believe current estimates
place the actual size at about half that.)

Mark Bailey described the effects of the Tunguska blast in England,
including a night sky so bright that one could read by it. (Those of us
living in large cities may not find this remarkable because we are so used
to light pollution, but the bright nights were a novelty in 1908.) Bailey
suggested the explosive yield at Tunguska reached about 30 megatons.
(I assume this represented a compromise between the commonly cited 15-20
megatons and the 48 megatons suggested by Hills and Goda.) Jasper Wall
stated the Tunguska event resulted from a meteor exploding about one kilometer
above the ground. (I believe the usual estimate for the airburst height is
several kilometers.) The program stated that Kulik launched three
expeditions to study Tunguska. (I assume this refers to the expeditions of
1927, 1928 and 1929-1930. However, Kulik also returned to Tunguska in
1937, 1938, and 1939. Sometimes these last three are lumped together as a
grand fourth expedition. Further planned expeditions did not take place
because of the war. Kulik died from typhus in a German prisoner of war camp
after being wounded in action.) Wall also said that if the Tunguska
impactor had struck three hours later it would have exploded over Moscow,
killing ten million people. (This seems high to me.)

The program stated that Tunguska-size events occur about once a century on
average. (This is the upper end of commonly cited frequencies. Other
estimates range down to about once a millennium.)

Two decades after Tunguska, in 1930, three small asteroids exploded over
Brazil. The blasts destroyed about 800 square miles (1280 sq km) of
jungle. Mark Bailey suggested these asteroids together totalled an
explosive yield of about 50 to 100 kilotons, much lower than Tunguska.

Randall Carlson addressed a topic of personal interest to me as a life-long
Chicagoan. He suggested a cometary impact triggered the Great Chicago
Fire of 1871 and the simultaneous fires in Wisconsin and Michigan. The
fire at Peshtigo may have been the worst ever in U. S. history in terms of
loss of life. The program stated that some scientists had suggested that
all these fires were ignited by a cometary impact, specifically a fragment
of Biela's comet. As far as I know, this hypothesis actually originated
with the granddaddy of American catastrophism, the inimitable Ignatius
Donnelly. Chicago writer Mel Waskin elaborated Donnelly's idea in his book
_Mrs. O'Leary's Comet!_. (Some of the eyewitness accounts, from Peshtigo
in particular, suggest an airburst origin for the fires. However, I would
assign a much lower probability to the impact hypothesis than Carlson and
the program did.)

(If I may get a plug in here, those interested in learning more about the
Great Chicago Fire should peruse the Chicago Historical Society web site
exhibit curated by Carl Smith, professor of English here at Northwestern:

http://www.chicagohs.org/fire/index.html


Carl mentions the impact hypothesis very briefly :-}.)

Carlson stated that no one was killed at Tunguska. (This is commonly repeated
but probably wrong. Two men are reported to have died at Tunguska: Vasiliy
son of Okhchen from wounds sustained after being hurled against a tree by the
blast, and the aged hunter Lyuburman of Shanyagir from shock.)

Ray Newburn provided a short summary of what comets are like. Asteroids
were described as pieces of a planet that never formed. Bill Bottke
related that approximately 1,500 to 2,000 asteroids 1 km or larger in
diameter lie in earth-crossing orbits. Some of these will surely strike
the Earth eventually. Carl Hergenrother noted that we have only located
about 300 to 400 of these objects.

Bottke offered that an asteroid the size of a house passes between the
Earth and Moon every day. An asteroid the size of a football field passes
between the Earth and the Moon once a month. Carl Hergenrother described a
close approach from one of these: asteroid 1996JA1 missed Earth by about
280,000 miles (448,000 kilometers), or about seven hours.

It was nice to see Thomas Bopp. The general public seems unaware of the role
amateur astronomers play in discovering comets.

Ed Tagliaferri discussed his role in getting satellite tracking information
about airbursts declassified. He stated that there were about 250 such
airbursts recorded over a ten year period, averaging about one every two
weeks. One of these exploded with the force of 50-70 kilotons of TNT over
Micronesia in 1994. The danger that such an airburst might be mistaken for
a nuclear attack was reiterated. Tagliaferri mentioned that President
Clinton is rumored to have been awakened when the Micronesia airburst
occurred. The military feared it might have been a nuclear blast.

Ray Newburn discussed impact-generated tsunamis (hey, two programs in one
night with this information!). A one kilometer asteroid striking the ocean
would raise a tsunami hundreds of feet high at the coast. The destructive
wave might continue hundreds of miles inland. A similar size impact on the
ground would raise a "dirt" wave which would circle the Earth at 500 mph.
(This didn't make sense to me. Time for me to pull out my copy of Melosh,
I guess :-}).

Gene Shoemaker and David Levy described the consequences of a large impact:
darkness, winter, world-wide forest fires, earthquakes and volcanoes
triggered by tectonic slip, massive acid rain, and an extended Greenhouse
effect lasting possibly hundreds of years.

David Levy pointed out that the impact of Shoemaker-Levy 9 on Jupiter
helped removed some of the "giggle factor" preventing studies of the impact
threat from being taken seriously by governments. However, it is still not
being taken seriously enough. Levy further noted that the chance of dying
by impact is about the same as dying in a plane crash. We spend a lot of
money trying to minimize the risk of death in a plane crash. Why are we
not willing to spend a comparable amount to minimize the risk of death from
impact?

There was a little bit of discussion about methods for diverting incoming
objects. Bill Bottke described the mass driver as one non-nuclear method
for altering the course of an asteroid.

The program concluded by noting that over 99% of all species are now
extinct, many possibly as the result of impact events. We are the first
species with the capability to prevent our own destruction from impact
events. Yet, funding for NEO search operations continues to be cut
world-wide. Bill Bottke offered that the yearly cost of such an operation
amounts to the salaries of a few star professional athletes. Does it make
sense not to find the funds to protect ourselves and our descendants --
indeed the whole of life on earth -- from the impact danger?

-- Phil "Pib" Burns
Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. USA
pib@nwu.edu
http://pibweb.it.nwu.edu/~pib/



CCCMENU CCC for 1997

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