PLEASE NOTE:


*

CCNet CLIMATE SCARES & CLIMATE CHANGE - 3 October 2001
======================================================


"I'm an old Greenpeace, left-wing kind of guy and thought basically,
yes, things are getting worse and worse. Then I read an interview
with Julian Simon, [the late] American economist, that tells us things are
actually getting better and better, contrary to common knowledge. I
thought, No, it can't be true. But he said 'Go check it yourself,' ... so
I'll have to get his book, to see that it was probably wrong. And it was
sufficiently good, his book, and it looked sufficiently substantiated that
it would probably be fun to debunk. So I got some of my best students
together and we did a study course in the fall of '97.... We wanted to
show, you know, this is entirely wrong, this is right-wing American
propaganda. As it turned out over the next couple months, we were
getting debunked for the most part."
--Bjorn Lomborg, VOANews, 1 October 2001


"The IPCC Summary continues on to an outlandish claim: "By contrast,
during the period 1958 to 1978, surface temperature trends were near zero,
while trends for the lowest 8 km (5 miles) of the atmosphere were near
0.2 C/decade." If this were true, then those who have claimed that the
climate has changed by human actions would have their strongest proof. For
then the troposphere did warm and surface temperatures didn't, just as the
models suggest. Only this just did not happen. The claim is an
error, and no minor one for such a prestigious and important report.
The troposphere showed no warming trend, or perhaps cooled slightly,
during that period."
--Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas, Tech Central Station, 1
Oct. 2001


(1) LITTLE ICE AGE - ARTIC
    C02 Science Magazine, 3 October 2001

(2) THE LITTLE ICE AGE IN THE ARABIAN SEA
    CO2 Science Magazine, 3 October 2001

(3) LITTLE ICE AGE - SOUTH AMERICA
    CO2 Science Magazine, 26 September 2001

(4) THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD AND LITTLE ICE AGE IN RUSSIA
    CO2 Science Magazine, 26 September 2001

(5) LITTLE ICE AGE - EUROPE
    CO2 Science Magazine, 19 September 2001

(6) LITTLE ICE AGE - AFRICA
    CO2 Science Magazine, 12 September 2001

(7) A SOLAR-INFLUENCED LITTLE ICE AGE AND MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD IN TROPICAL
VENEZUELA
    CO2 Science Magazine, 12 September 2001

(8) GLOBAL WARMING FACTS, CONSENSUS MELT AWAY
    TechCentralStation, 1 October 2001

(9) DANISH SCIENTIST CLAIMS KYOTO TREATY USELESS
    VOANews, 1 October 2001

===============
(1) LITTLE ICE AGE - ARTIC

>From C02 Science Magazine, 3 October 2001
http://www.co2science.org/subject/a/summaries/arcticiceage.htm

What does modern research have to tell us about climate change in the Arctic
over the recent and more distant past?

Dahl-Jensen et al. (1998) reconstructed the temperature history of the
Greenland Ice Sheet over the past 50,000 years from temperatures retrieved
from two boreholes.  Relative to the present, temperatures during the
Medieval Warm Period were about 1C warmer than now, while temperatures
during the Little Ice Age were 0.5-0.7C cooler.  Subsequent to this last
major climate anomaly, the authors note that "temperatures reached a maximum
around 1930," and that "temperatures have decreased during the last
decades."

Moore et al. (2001) analyzed sediment cores from Donard Lake on Baffin
Island in Canada to produce a 1240-year record (from 750 to 1990) of average
summer temperature for that region.  Relative to the long-term mean,
temperature elevations on the order of 1C occurred around 1000 and 1100,
while temperatures rose by nearly 2C from 1195 to 1220.  Thereafter, an
abrupt cooling occurred around 1375, representing the onset of the Little
Ice Age, which lasted some 400 years in this region.  Warming was then
experienced from 1800 to 1900, whereupon temperatures returned to Little Ice
Age conditions until about 1950.  It then warmed for about 20 years, after
which temperatures tended to become cooler right up to the end of the record
(1990).

Kasper and Allard (2001) studied ice wedges (a form of ground ice in
permafrost regions that deforms and cracks the soil) near Salluit, northern
Quebec, developing a qualitative description of climate there over the past
4,000 years.  Again, they observed a warm medieval period that lasted to
about the year 1030, followed by the coldest period of the entire 4,000-year
record, which lasted from 1500 to 1900.  Thereafter, it warmed until
approximately 1946, whereupon cold conditions returned for the last half of
the 20th century.

In addition to clearly indicating the presence of both the Medieval Warm
Period and the Little Ice Age in the Arctic, these studies suggest that this
northernmost part of the globe has actually cooled over the last several
decades.  This finding is just the opposite of what is universally predicted
by state-of-the-art climate models.  However, it is consistent with
real-world temperature measurements from across the entire region, which
also depict a cooling over this period (Przybylak, 2000).

In conclusion, the story from the "top of the world" - where CO2-induced
global warming is supposed to be most strongly expressed, according to
essentially all climate models - is abundantly clear: it's just not there.
But the historic Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, which climate
alarmists are trying to relegate to the realm of the "never happened,"
clearly were there.  Try as they might, the forces so set on making us
change the way we obtain and utilize energy just can't change the testimony
of nature.

References
Dahl-Jensen, D., Mosegaard, K., Gundestrup, N., Clow, G.D., Johnsen, S.J.,
Hansen, A.W. and Balling, N.  1998.  Past temperatures directly from the
Greenland Ice Sheet.  Science 282: 268-271.

Kasper, J.N. and Allard, M.  2001.  Late-Holocene climatic changes as
detected by the growth and decay of ice wedges on the southern shore of
Hudson Strait, northern Quebec, Canada.  The Holocene 11: 563-577.

Moore, J.J., Hughen, K.A., Miller, G.H. and Overpeck, J.T.  2001.  Little
Ice Age recorded in summer temperature reconstruction from varved sediments
of Donard Lake, Baffin Island, Canada.  Journal of Paleolimnology 25:
503-517.

Przybylak, R.  2000.  Temporal and spatial variation of surface air
temperature over the period of instrumental observations in the Arctic.
International Journal of Climatology 20: 587-614.
 
Copyright 2001.  Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change


=============
(2) THE LITTLE ICE AGE IN THE ARABIAN SEA

>From CO2 Science Magazine, 3 October 2001
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2001/v4n40c1.htm

Reference
Doose-Rolinski, H., Rogalla, U., Scheeder, G., Luckge, A. and von Rad, U.
2001.  High-resolution temperature and evaporation changes during the late
Holocene in the northeastern Arabian Sea.  Paleoceanography 16: 358-367.

What was done
The authors analyzed a complete and annually-laminated sediment core
extracted from the bed of the northeastern Arabian Sea just south southeast
of Karachi, Pakistan, using oxygen isotopes of planktonic foraminifera and
measurements of long-chain alkenones to derive a detailed sea surface
temperature and evaporation history for the area.

What was learned
The greatest temperature fluctuations of the 5,000-year record occurred
between 4600 and 3300 years ago and between 500 and 200 years ago, which
periods were also the coldest of the record.  Of the latter interval, the
authors note that "in northern and central Europe this period is known as
the 'Little Ice Age'," and they say that their results "confirm [the] global
effects" of this unique climatic excursion. Also apparent in their
temperature history is a period of sustained warmth that prevailed between
about 1250 and 950 years ago, which corresponds nicely with the Medieval
Warm Period of northern and central Europe.

What it means
Once again, and contrary to the claims of certain climate revisionists, new
evidence continues to confirm the global nature of both the Medieval Warm
Period and the Little Ice Age. This evidence also indicates that neither the
current state of earth's climate nor its rate of change are anything out of
the ordinary, which is also contrary to the claims of the
politically-correct revisionists.
 
Copyright 2001. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change 

=============
(3) LITTLE ICE AGE - SOUTH AMERICA

>From CO2 Science Magazine, 26 September 2001
http://www.co2science.org/subject/s/summaries/southamericaiceage.htm

In an attempt to rewrite climatic history, certain scientists have claimed
the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period were neither global phenomena
nor strong enough where they did occur to have a discernable influence on
mean global air temperature, in order to make the putative warming of the
last part of the 20th century appear highly unusual, which they equate with
anthropogenic-induced, which they associate with the historical rise in the
air's CO2 content, which gives them reason to call for dramatic reductions
in the use of fossil fuels, which we believe to be unwarranted.  Hence, we
continually search the emerging scientific literature for evidence that the
Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period were truly global events.  This
brief review summarizes what we have learned about the Little Ice Age in
South America over the past few years.

Proceeding alphabetically, the climatic history of the central region of
Argentina was reviewed by Cioccale (1999), who reports that some 400 years
prior to the start of the last millennium, a climatic "improvement"
occurred, characterized by "a marked increase of environmental suitability,
under a relatively homogeneous climate."  As a result of this climatic
amelioration, the people that had previously lived in the lower valleys
"ascended to higher areas in the Andes."  Around 1320 AD, however, a
transition to the stressful and extreme climate of the Little Ice Age began.
The initial cold pulse of this period, which extended from the first decades
of the 15th century to the end of the 16th century, was accompanied by "a
decrease in environmental suitability," such that "vegetation began to
suffer the consequences of this climatic deterioration."

This first cold pulse, according to Cioccale, was followed by an
intermediate benign period "of major climatic stability, with very scarce
extraordinary floods and few droughts."  From the start of the 18th century
and lasting until the beginning of the 19th century, however, "glaciers in
the Southern Andes underwent their main advance and the plains of the
central region of the country suffered intense droughts."  In addition,
Cioccale says "the intense cold caused a lowering of the upper limits of
cultivation ... and residents abandoned the towns in the mountains."  These
two cold pulses, in the author's view, "can be related to the Sporer and
Maunder Minimums respectively," implicating solar variability as their
primary cause.

Also working in Argentina, Valero-Garces et al. (2000) studied saline lake
sediments obtained from the southernmost part of the Altiplano - a
north-south trending high volcanic plateau that runs from tropical to
subtropical latitudes of South America. These researchers discovered "abrupt
paleohydrological and paleoclimatic changes synchronous to the onset and
termination of the Little Ice Age."  So clear was the message of their data,
they unequivocally stated, as their final conclusion, that "the Little Ice
Age stands as a significant climatic event in the Altiplano and South
America."

Progressing to Chile, Harrison and Winchester (2000) studied 19th- and
20th-century fluctuations of the Arco, Colonia and Arenales glaciers on the
eastern side of the Hielo Patagonico Norte in the southern part of the
country.  These glaciers, along with four others on the western side of the
ice field, began to retreat from their Little Ice Age maximum positions
somewhere between 1850 and 1880, continuing to recede "through the first
half of the 20th century with various still-stands and oscillations between
1925 and 1960," with the retreat increasing since the 1960s as the earth
continues to rebound from this significant global climatic anomaly.

In southern Peru, Goodman et al. (2001) analyzed the soil properties of
several glacial moraines located in the Cordillera Vilcanota and Quelccaya
Ice Cap regions.  Following the Holocene Climatic Optimum, they detected
evidence of several episodes of glacial advance; but as they describe it,
"the most extensive advance during the late Holocene in southern Peru
occurred during the Little Ice Age," dated to around 400 years before
present in the Cordillera Vilcanota and 300 years ago in the vicinity of the
Quelccaya Ice Cap.

Closing out our alphabetical journey of discovery, Haug et al. (2001)
examined an ocean sediment core retrieved from the Cariaco Basin on the
Northern Shelf of Venezuela.  Analyses of titanium and iron concentrations
within the core enabled them to determine that higher precipitation was the
norm during the Medieval Warm Period from 1050 to 700 years ago, while drier
conditions prevailed during the Little Ice Age from 550 to 200 years ago.
"These regional changes in precipitation," they say, "are best explained by
shifts in the mean latitude of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone,"
which "can be explained by the Holocene history of insolation."

In conclusion, it is clear that the emerging scientific literature continues
to report ever more evidence for the occurrence of both the Medieval Warm
Period and Little Ice Age in South America, in contradiction of the claims
of climate alarmists that these climatic intervals were localized to regions
about the North Atlantic Ocean.  Ongoing research also continues to suggest
that the phenomenon behind these millennial-scale climatic oscillations is
solar variability, which leaves the anthropogenic CO2 explanation "out in
the cold."

References

Cioccale, M.A.  1999.  Climatic fluctuations in the Central Region of
Argentina in the last 1000 years.  Quaternary International 62: 35-47.

Goodman, A.Y., Rodbell, D.T., Seltzer, G.O. and Mark, B.G.  2001.
Subdivision of glacial deposits in southeastern Peru based on pedogenic
development and radiometric ages.  Quaternary Research 56: 31-50.

Harrison, S. and Winchester, V.  2000.  Nineteenth- and twentieth-century
glacier fluctuations and climatic implications in the Arco and Colonia
Valleys, Hielo Patagonico Norte, Chile.  Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine
Research 32: 55-63.

Haug, G.H., Hughen, K.A., Sigman, D.M., Peterson, L.C. and Rohl, U.  2001.
Southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone through the
Holocene.  Science 293: 1304-1308.

Valero-Garces, B.L., Delgado-Huertas, A., Ratto, N., Navas, A. and Edwards,
L.  2000.  Paleohydrology of Andean saline lakes from sedimentological and
isotopic records, Northwestern Argentina.  Journal of Paleolimnology 24:
343-359.
 
Copyright 2001.  Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change


==============
(4) THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD AND LITTLE ICE AGE IN RUSSIA

>From CO2 Science Magazine, 26 September 2001
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2001/v4n39c2.htm

Reference
Demezhko, D.Yu. and Shchapov, V.A.  2001.  80,000 years ground surface
temperature history inferred from the temperature-depth log measured in the
superdeep hole SG-4 (the Urals, Russia).  Global and Planetary Change 29:
167-178.

What was done
Whereas most boreholes do not exceed 1 km depth, which limits the length of
the ground surface temperature history reconstruction by this method to only
the last few centuries, the authors studied a borehole extending to more
than 5 km depth, allowing them to reconstruct an 80,000-year history of
ground surface temperature.  This borehole was located in the Middle Urals
within the western rim of the Tagil subsidence (5824' N, 5944'E).

What was learned
The reconstructed temperature history revealed the existence of a number of
climatic excursions, including the "Holocene Optimum 4000-6000 years ago,
Medieval Warm Period with a culmination about 1000 years ago and Little Ice
Age 200-500 years ago."  Furthermore, the mean temperature of the Medieval
Warm Period was determined to be more elevated above the mean temperature of
the past century than the mean temperature of the Little Ice Age was reduced
below that of the past century.

What it means
Once again, we have real-world evidence for the reality of the Medieval Warm
Period, as well as its dominance over the past century in terms of its much
greater warmth, which flies in the face of the contrary claims of climate
alarmists who strive desperately to make current temperatures appear
"unprecedented" over the past millennium.
 
Copyright 2001.  Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change


===========
(5) LITTLE ICE AGE - EUROPE

>From CO2 Science Magazine, 19 September 2001
http://www.co2science.org/subject/e/summaries/europeiceage.htm

The Little Ice Age was a time of distressful climate in Europe. Working with
a sediment core retrieved from Lake Atnsjoen, Nesje et al. (2001) developed
a 4500-year record of river floods in eastern Norway. Following "a period of
little flood activity around the Medieval period (AD1000-1400)," which
coincided with reduced regional glacier activity, they documented "a period
of the most extensive flood activity" that resulted from the "post-Medieval
climate deterioration characterized by lower air temperature, thicker and
more long-lasting snow cover, and more frequent storms associated with the
'Little Ice Age'."

This same pattern of climate progression was documented by Andren et al.
(2000), who studied a sediment core obtained from the Bornholm Basin in the
southwestern Baltic Sea. Their data revealed the existence of a period of
high primary productivity at approximately AD 1050, followed by what they
call the Recent Baltic Sea Stage, which began at about AD 1200. This
climatic transition was characterized by "a major decrease in warm water
taxa in the diatom assemblage and an increase in cold water taxa, indicating
a shift towards a colder climate."  They also note that the tropical and
subtropical marine planktonic species of the Medieval Warm Period "cannot be
found in the present Baltic Sea," indicative of the likelihood that that
part of the world has yet to fully recover from the dramatic chill of the
Little Ice Age.

Bodri and Cermak (1999) studied the same period of time via a set of 98
boreholes drilled within the borders of the Czech Republic. They too
documented "the existence of a medieval warm epoch lasting from 1100-1300
AD," which they described as "one of the warmest postglacial times."  They
also noted that during the main phase of the Little Ice Age, from 1600-1700
AD, "all investigated territory was already subjected to massive cooling,"
and that "the observed recent warming may thus be easily a natural return of
climate from the previous colder conditions back to a 'normal'."

Similar conclusions were reached by Filippi et al. (1999), who studied a
sediment core obtained from Lake Neuchatel in the western Swiss Lowlands at
the foot of the Jura Mountains.  Their data indicate that mean annual air
temperature likely dropped by about 1.5C between the Medieval Warm Period
(MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA).  In addition, they say "the warming
during the 20th century does not seem to have fully compensated the cooling
at the MWP-LIA transition," noting that during the Medieval Warm Period mean
annual air temperatures were "on average higher than at present."

Similar observations have been made by Keigwin (1996), based on data
obtained from beneath the Sargasso Sea, and Bond et al. (1997), based on
work carried out in the North Atlantic.  Citing Keigwin, Filippi et al. note
that "sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions show that SST was ca.
1C cooler than today about 400 years ago and ca. 1C warmer than today
during the MWP."  Citing Bond et al., they note that the MWP and LIA are
merely the most recent manifestations of "a pervasive millennial-scale
coupled atmosphere-ocean climate oscillation" that occurs independently of
atmospheric CO2 variations.

These many observations all weaken the climate-alarmist claim that the
"unprecedented" warming of the past century is, first of all, unprecedented,
and secondly, that it is due to the historical rise in the air's CO2
content.  Likewise, the report of D'Orefice et al. (2000), who studied a
wealth of historical evidence to derive a history of the post-LIA shrinkage
of Europe's southernmost glacier and found it to be amazingly similar to the
history of the retreat of a number of glaciers in southern Chile (see our
Journal Review The Demise of the Little Ice Age in Chile), flies in the face
of the climate alarmists' claim that these climatic events were not global
in extent.

As evidence continues to accumulate, the worn-out claims of the climate
alarmists are looking more and more like what their name implies: climate
alarmism, an unabashed form of scaremongering based on a flimsy foundation
riddled with massive cracks and holes.

References
Andren, E., Andren, T. and Sohlenius, G.  2000.  The Holocene history of the
southwestern Baltic Sea as reflected in a sediment core from the Bornholm
Basin.  Boreas 29: 233-250.

Bodri, L. and Cermak, V.  1999.  Climate change of the last millennium
inferred from borehole temperatures: Regional patterns of climatic changes
in the Czech Republic - Part III.  Global and Planetary Change 21: 225-235.

Bond, G., Showers, W., Cheseby, M., Lotti, R., Almasi, P., deMenocal, P.,
Priori, P., Cullen, H., Hajdes, I. and Bonani, G.  1997.  A pervasive
millennial-scale climate cycle in the North Atlantic: The Holocene and late
glacial record.  Science 278: 1257-1266.

D'Orefice, M., Pecci, M., Smiraglia, C. and Ventura, R.  2000.  Retreat of
Mediterranean glaciers since the Little Ice Age: Case study of Ghiacciaio
del Calderone, central Apennines, Italy.  Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine
Research 32: 197-201.

Filippi, M.L., Lambert, P., Hunziker, J., Kubler, B. and Bernasconi, S.
1999.  Climatic and anthropogenic influence on the stable isotope record
from bulk carbonates and ostracodes in Lake Neuchatel, Switzerland, during
the last two millennia.  Journal of Paleolimnology 21: 19-34.

Keigwin, L.D.  1996.  The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period in the
Sargasso Sea.  Science 274: 1504-1508.

Nesje, A., Dahl, S.O., Matthews, J.A. and Berrisford, M.S.  2001.  A ~
4500-yr record of river floods obtained from a sediment core in Lake
Atnsjoen, eastern Norway.  Journal of Paleolimnology 25: 329-342.
 
Copyright 2001.  Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change


===============
(6) LITTLE ICE AGE - AFRICA

>From CO2 Science Magazine, 12 September 2001
http://www.co2science.org/subject/a/summaries/africaiceage.htm

Paleoclimate reconstructions clearly demonstrate a Little Ice Age influence
on African climate during the 14th through 19th centuries. One of the more
pronounced features of this influence was a decline in temperatures. Johnson
et al. (2001), for example, report that colder conditions were observed
between 1570 and 1820 in tropical Africa. Huffman (1996) reports it was also
colder in southern Africa between 1300 and 1800 A.D.; and according to
Holmgren et al. (2001) and Tyson et al. (2000), the magnitude of this Little
Ice Age cooling reached about 1C.

In addition to bringing colder temperatures, data from equatorial east
Africa suggest the Little Ice Age wreaked havoc on the hydrologic cycle as
well.  Nicholson and Yin (2001), for example, report widespread "drought and
desiccation" accompanied by low lake levels from the late 1700s to about
1830. "Lake Naivash," they state, "was reduced to a puddle ... Lake Chad was
desiccated ... Lake Malawi was so low that local inhabitants traversed dry
land where a deep lake now resides ... Lake Rukwa [was] completely
desiccated ... Lake Chilwa, at its southern end, was very low and nearby
Lake Chiuta almost dried up."  Similar severe drought episodes were noted
for equatorial east Africa by Verschuren et al. (2000), who report on three
periods of prolonged dryness (1390-1420, 1560-1625 and 1760-1840) that were
"more severe than any recorded drought of the twentieth century."

With respect to the cause or causes of the Little Ice Age and its influence
on African climate, Tyson et al. (2000) note that the coldest point of the
Little Ice Age corresponded in time with the Maunder Minimum of sunspot
activity and Verschuren et al. (2000) similarly note that "all three severe
drought events [in east Africa] of the past 700 years were broadly coeval
with phases of high solar radiation, and the intervening periods of
increased moisture were coeval with phases of low solar radiation."  Hence,
it is likely that solar radiation played an important role in African
climate during the Little Ice Age.

Regardless of its cause or causes, it is important to note that the Little
Ice Age was not localized to the mid- to upper-latitudes of the Northern
Hemisphere, but that its influence was felt as far away as southern Africa
in the Southern Hemisphere, contrary to the claims of climate alarmists who
try desperately to convince the world otherwise in their quest to portray
the putative warming of the last two decades as unprecedented and,
therefore, of anthropogenic origin.

References
Holmgren, K., Tyson, P.D., Moberg, A. and Svanered, O.  2001.  A preliminary
3000-year regional temperature reconstruction for South Africa.  South
African Journal of Science 97: 49-51.

Huffman, T.N.  1996.  Archaeological evidence for climatic change during the
last 2000 years in southern Africa.  Quaternary International 33: 55-60.

Johnson, T.C., Barry, S., Chan, Y. and Wilkinson, P.  2001.  Decadal record
of climate variability spanning the past 700 yr in the Southern Tropics of
East Africa.  Geology 29: 83-86.

Nicholson, S.E. and Yin, X.  2001.  Rainfall conditions in equatorial East
Africa during the Nineteenth Century as inferred from the record of Lake
Victoria.  Climatic Change 48: 387-398.

Tyson, P.D., Karlen, W., Holmgren, K. and Heiss, G.A.  2000.  The Little Ice
Age and medieval warming in South Africa.  South African Journal of Science
96: 121-126.

Verschuren, D., Laird, K.R. and Cumming, B.F.  2000.  Rainfall and drought
in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years.  Nature 403: 410-414.
 
Copyright 2001.  Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change


===========
(7) A SOLAR-INFLUENCED LITTLE ICE AGE AND MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD IN TROPICAL
VENEZUELA

>From CO2 Science Magazine, 12 September 2001
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2001/v4n37c3.htm

Reference
Haug, G.H., Hughen, K.A., Sigman, D.M., Peterson, L.C. and Rohl, U.  2001.
Southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone through the
Holocene.  Science 293: 1304-1308.

What was done
The authors examined the titanium and iron concentrations of an ocean
sediment core taken from a depth of 893 meters in the Cariaco Basin on the
Northern Shelf of Venezuela (1042.73'N, 6510.18'W) to infer variations in
the hydrologic cycle over northern South America over the past 14,000 years.

What was learned
Titanium and iron concentrations were lower during the Younger Dryas cold
period between 12.6 and 11.5 thousand years ago, corresponding to a weakened
hydrologic cycle with less precipitation and runoff.  During the Holocene
Optimum (10.5 to 5.4 thousand years ago), however, concentrations of these
metals remained at or near their highest values, suggesting wet conditions
and an enhanced hydrologic cycle for over five thousand years.  Closer to
the present, the largest century-scale variations in precipitation are
inferred in the record between approximately 3.8 and 2.8 thousand years ago,
as the amounts of these metals in the sediment record varied widely over
short time intervals. Higher precipitation was noted during the Medieval
Warm Period from 1.05 to 0.7 thousand years ago, followed by drier
conditions associated with the Little Ice Age (between 550 and 200 years
ago).

What factor(s) might best explain the regional changes in precipitation
inferred from the Cariaco metals' records of the past 14,000 years?
According to the authors, "these regional changes in precipitation are best
explained by shifts in the mean latitude of the Atlantic Intertropical
Convergence Zone," which, in turn, "can be explained by the Holocene history
of insolation, both directly and through its effect on tropical Pacific sea
surface conditions."

What it means
The results of this study add further credence to the climate realist claim
that both the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period were global
climatic anomalies, not limited to the mid- and upper-latitudes of the
Northern Hemisphere. Indeed, both events were strong enough to exert a
measurable influence in the Northern Hemisphere tropics. Furthermore, this
study demonstrates the important influence of solar variations on climate.
 
Copyright 2001.  Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change


==========
(8) GLOBAL WARMING FACTS, CONSENSUS MELT AWAY

>From TechCentralStation, 1 October 2001
http://www.techcentralstation.com/EnviroExtra.asp?id=79

By: Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas, Co-Host, Tech Central Station

The exaggeration over the supposed scientific consensus on the human cause
of global warming continues, even as the evidence that the underlying data
supposedly proving a human connection melts away.

In the July 20 Science, three British researchers attempted to defend the
scientific integrity of the joint World Meteorological Organization and
United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third
Assessment Reports.

That's hardly a surprise. After all, these scientists shared authorship for
both the assessment reports' Summary for Policymakers and the Technical
Summary. But their defense crossed into hyperbole when they claimed:
"Individual authors can always make assumptions that may be controversial in
order to explore their implications, but IPCC reports, which are subject to
a long and exhaustive review process, do not have the luxury. ... The IPCC
is a cautious body, and if evidence is not available in the peer-reviewed
literature to support a statement, it will not make it, no matter how great
the interest in that statement might be."

These authors would have people believe that the IPCC makes no controversial
claims and fully accounts for the uncertainties and the unknowns. The
science, in short, about climate change is settled. And as the summary for
policymakers proclaimed: "There is new and stronger evidence that most of
the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities [i.e., the anthropogenic greenhouse gases, mainly carbon
dioxide]."

But this claim is empty. There is stronger evidence that it is not mankind
that has caused global warming. It takes some hefty manipulation and
illogical explanation of the data to show mankind has contributed anything
at all.

One key problem lies in the Technical Summary when it attempts to use
surface temperatures and those of the troposphere, that layer of air up to 5
miles above the surface, to demonstrate human-caused warming.

According to all the computer models, the troposphere temperature should
warm faster than the surface air if carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas
produced by man's burning fossil fuels, is really the culprit. It's a matter
of physics. The more moist and warmer surface air is less affected by
increases in CO2 than the less moist and cooler upper air. At the higher
level CO2 both radiates energy back into space and down to the surface air
to be absorbed.

The IPCC's Technical Summary, written in part by the three British
scientists, claims that the temperature trends since 1958 for the lowest 5
miles of atmosphere and the surface are "in good agreement, ... with a
warming of about 0.1 degree C per decade." To demonstrate this, a chart
plotting the temperatures from 1958 to present is shown.

The close agreement, if it existed, would not prove human-caused warming. As
noted, the computer simulations forecast a greater warming for the
troposphere than the surface. At the same time - as climate researchers know
- a straight trend line as the Technical Summary provides is not the proper
way to look at the data. This is especially so in this case as the starting
point was cool, affected by Mount Agung's volcanic eruption. The end point
is unusually warm, with the natural and cyclical 1997 - 98 El Nio event
temporarily exaggerating warming at the end of the century.

But that's not all. As climate experts know, there was a step-like shift in
temperatures in the northern Pacific in 1976-77. It was strong enough to
elevate global air temperatures both near the surface and in the
troposphere. Climate models do not explain this abrupt Pacific climate
shift.

This step-like rise argues against human-caused warming, which the computer
models say should be a gradual trend over decades, not a jump within a year
or two. Recent research results suggest that the 1976-77 climate shift is
not unique. Instead, the Pacific alternately warms and cools about every two
decades, according to recorded tree ring changes of the past few hundred
years. And climate researchers have noted that the Northern Pacific
temperatures since the summer of 1998 appear to be returning to lower
levels.

Such measurements suggest the resulting Pacific and global climate shifts
are very unlikely to be caused by man and his burning of fossil fuels.

That, though, is not the only fact that the Technical Summary's distortion
of the temperature record glosses over.

The Summary finds a contradiction to the idea of human induced warming:
"Since the beginning of the satellite record in 1979, the temperature data
from both satellites and weather balloons show a warming in the global
middle-to-lower troposphere at a rate of approximately 0.05 0.1C per
decade. The global average surface temperature has increased significantly
by 0.15 0.05C/decade." This, as the summary admits, is a statistically
significant difference. Left unsaid is the fact that the result runs counter
to the forecast that the troposphere would warm faster than the surface.

The Summary continues on to an outlandish claim: "By contrast, during the
period 1958 to 1978, surface temperature trends were near zero, while trends
for the lowest 8 km (5 miles) of the atmosphere were near 0.2 C/decade."

If this were true, then those who have claimed that the climate has changed
by human actions would have their strongest proof. For then the troposphere
did warm and surface temperatures didn't, just as the models suggest.

Only this just did not happen. The claim is an error, and no minor one for
such a prestigious and important report.

The troposphere showed no warming trend, or perhaps cooled slightly, during
that period. The only way to produce a warming trend as large as stated for
the troposphere warming is to selectively calculate a trend only between
1964 and 1983, with 1983 affected by a strong El Nio warming event.

Finally, the IPCC, in making predictions of future warming as high as 0.58
degrees C per decade, said this rate "is very likely [90-99% confident] to
be without precedent during at least the last 10,000 [sic] years, based on
paleoclimate data."

But what is the scientific evidence for that claim? The troposphere and
surface records together undermine such an alarmist claim.

Perhaps the new IPCC statements contain typos or other sorts of inadvertent
errors. Yet the IPCC authors in their commentary in Science leave the
impression there were none that mattered.

There is no clear signal to proclaim scientifically the large global
climatic effects by man-made carbon dioxide forecast to date. The many
political reports by the IPCC for the last 11 years or so have not changed
that. Funding would have been better spent on searching for understanding of
the climate science itself.

Copyright 2001, TechCentral

============
(9) DANISH SCIENTIST CLAIMS KYOTO TREATY USELESS

>From VOANews, 1 October 2001
http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=137EB02E-F9C2-4C25-AA2D556679715522&Title=Danish%20Scientist%20Claims%20Kyoto%20Treaty%20Useless

Peter Heinlein
Copenhagen
  
The earth's environment is steadily improving. Global warming is nothing
much to worry about. The real danger is the Kyoto Treaty, which will cost
far too much and do almost no good. These are the ideas of a Danish
professor and former Greenpeace activist who has written a book titled, "The
Skeptical Environmentalist." The book, which has recently been published in
English, is causing outrage in the environmental community.

His fans call Bjorn Lomborg an outstanding representative of a "new breed of
scientists - mathematically-skilled and computer-adept." One favorable
review predicts his new book will overturn our most basic assumptions about
the world's environment.

But to his detractors he is not a scientist at all, but a fraud: a
statistics professor who they claim makes selective use of statistics to
support a right-wing, anti-environment agenda.

Sitting in his Copenhagen apartment dressed in jeans and a T-shirt, the
blond, 36 year old backpacker hardly seems like the same Bjorn Lomborg who
is challenging the very foundations of the green movement. He explains that
he started out as an environmental activist. "I'm an old Greenpeace,
left-wing kind of guy and thought basically, yes, things are getting worse
and worse," he said. "Then I read an interview with Julian Simon, [the late]
American economist, that tells us things are actually getting better and
better, contrary to common knowledge. I thought, No, it can't be true. But
he said 'Go check it yourself,' ... so I'll have to get his book, to see
that it was probably wrong. And it was sufficiently good, his book, and it
looked sufficiently substantiated that it would probably be fun to debunk.
So I got some of my best students together and we did a study course in the
fall of '97.... We wanted to show, you know, this is entirely wrong, this is
right-wing American propaganda. As it turned out over the next couple
months, we were getting debunked for the most part."

Professor Lomborg says the project convinced him that environmental groups,
the so-called greens, are exaggerating their claims of global environmental
gloom and doom.

But he says those exaggerations and sometimes, he adds, even outright
falsehoods, often become part of conventional wisdom, accepted by a majority
of people because he says green groups seem to enjoy more credibility than
governments or business lobbies. "Everybody knows businesses, when they say
'don't worry about the environment,' it may be true, but they might also
have a good reasons for saying it, profit reasons, ulterior motives," said
Bjorn Lomborg. "So we're skeptical. But we're not in the same way skeptical
of green groups, but they are also lobby groups. They also have an agenda."

One of Professor Lomborg's favorite targets is the Kyoto Treaty on global
warming.

A host of recent studies predict catastrophic consequences for the
environment from a rise in global temperatures. The United Nations Panel on
Climate Change, backed by 3,000 scientists, has thrown its full weight
behind the argument that global warming is happening faster than expected,
and that ratification of the Kyoto Protocol is urgent.

Professor Lomborg concedes that global warming is real, but calls the Kyoto
Treaty a monumental waste of money. "Basically, Kyoto will do very little to
change global warming," he said. "On the other hand, Kyoto will be
incredibly expensive. It will cost anywhere from $150-350 billion a year,
that's a lot of money when compared to the total global aid of about $50
billion a year. So the idea is, just for one year of Kyoto, we could give
clean drinking water and sanitation to every single human being on earth.
This would avoid 2 million deaths a year, and help half a billion people
from not getting seriously ill each year."

That argument has sparked a furious outcry from environmentalists. Klaus
Heinberg, a professor of environmental sciences at Denmark's Roskilde
University, accuses Professor Lomborg of twisting facts and manipulating
statistics. "His main argument is that we can use the money we earned
through industrialism to repair all the bad things going on," he said. "That
kind of argument is dangerous. He made these weird comparisons that normal
people make in fun, like 'if all children in Europe stopped eating ice
cream, then we would have enough money for eliminating diseases in Africa.'
He uses that kind of argument seriously, and he does that in the Climate and
Kyoto connection."

Professor Lomborg denies being a supporter of U.S. President George Bush,
and says he is not happy that his conclusions will undoubtedly be used for
political ends.

President Bush announced in March that Washington was abandoning the Kyoto
agreement, saying it would place unfair burdens on the U.S. economy.

Professor Lomborg says it is a scientist's duty to put out the information,
regardless of the political consequences. "If we start thinking, we can't
say this because I'm gonna help somebody, for instance Bush, somebody I
might not like, so I should keep it back, then I become a small politician
instead of being a scientist," said Professor Lomborg. "So in that respect,
I say it's an occupational hazard of being a scientist that you sometimes
end up supporting what you in your own personal, political views, you would
think of as the wrong people."

Professor Lomborg says he expected a hostile response from green groups to
his claim that, in fact, the environment is getting better and better. He
says for that reason, he has been very careful to use only statistics from
what he says are respected sources.

And what does he say might be a better answer to global warming than the
Kyoto Treaty? Investing in research into renewable energy sources. That, he
says, is the long-term solution. As solar energy becomes economical, the
level of the carbon dioxide emissions that cause warming should decline
sharply.

Copyright 2001, VOANews

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