PLEASE NOTE:


*

CCNet CLIMATE SCARES & CLIMATE CHANGE, 28 November 2001
=======================================================


"Looking at the best data and comparing them to the output of the
computer simulations reveals that the simulations exaggerate warming.
They exaggerate warming at the surface and, to a greater degree, warming in
the lower troposphere. The computer results are also, presumably,
exaggerating the forecasts of future warming. And that's the good news from
science for which we should be thankful. It means that the human effect on
global warming is small and slow to develop. That allows time to continue
to improve measurements and computer simulations of climate that will
better define the magnitude of human-made warming. In turn, leaders
can create a meaningful energy policy - one that is both effective
and cost-efficient, while energy use continues to help feed and lift
millions from suffering and poverty."
--Sallie Baliunas, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for
Astrophysics, 22 November 2001


"Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but
important task of climate modeling, the unique attribution of observed
current climate change to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration,
including the relatively well-observed latest 20 yr, is not possible. We
further conclude that the incautious use of GCMs to make future climate
projections from incomplete or unknown forcing scenarios is antithetical to
the intrinsically heuristic value of models. Such uncritical application
of climate models has led to the commonly held but erroneous impression
that modeling has proven or substantiated the hypothesis that CO2
added to the air has caused or will cause significant global warming."
--Willie Soon, Climate Research, 2 November 2001


"It is readily evident, therefore, that the study of Bond et al.
provides ample ammunition for defending the premise that the global
warming of the past century or so may well have been nothing more
than the solar-mediated recovery of the earth from the chilly conditions
of the most recent Little Ice Age, and that any further warming of the
planet that might occur would likely be nothing more than a
continuation of the same solar-mediated cycle that is destined to usher
the globe into the next Medieval-like or Modern Warm Period.
--Sherwood B. Idso, Keith E. Idso, 28 November 2001


(1) THE GOOD NEWS IS THE BAD NEWS IS WRONG
    Tech Central Station, 22 November 2001

(2) UNKNOWNS & UNCERTAINTIES IN MODELLING CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC
CO2 EMISSIONS
    Willie Soon  et al.

(3) GOSH: SUN APPEARS TO BE MAJOR CAUSE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
    CO2 Science Magazine, 28 November 2001

(4) FOREST MANAGEMENT MAY MITIGATE GLOBAL WARMING
    Science Daily, 27 November 2001

(5) THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD IN GREENLAND
    C02 Science Magazine, 28 November 2001

(6) ECOLOGICAL CHANGES IN TROPICAL MONTANE CLOUD FORESTS: HARBRINGERS OF
GLOBAL WARMING?
    CO2 Science Magazine, 28 November 2001

(7) FACE EXPERIMENTS (TREES)
    CO2 Science Magazine, 28 November 2001

(8) TRMM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DIVERSE INSIGHTS INTO CLIMATE PROCESSES ON ITS
FOURTH ANNIVERSARY
    Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>

(9) RE: GLOBAL WARMING MORE COMMON THAN THOUGHT
    John Michael Williams <jwill@AstraGate.net>

(10) AND FINALLY: IT'S OFFICIAL - ENGLISH FOOTBALL TEAMS SCORE FEWER GOALS!
     Nature, 27 November 2001

=============
(1) THE GOOD NEWS IS THE BAD NEWS IS WRONG

>From Tech Central Station, 22 November 2001
http://www.techcentralstation.com/EnviroScienceTechnology.asp?id=99

Dr. Sallie Baliunas, Co-Host, Tech Central Station

First, the good news. Petroleum, coal and natural gas supply around 84% of
energy consumption in the U.S. and 80% worldwide. For now and the near
future, fossil fuels are key to improving human health and welfare - and the
environment. The reason is that energy use is essential to eradicating
poverty that is destructive to humankind and the earth. We are grateful that
longevity, human welfare and the environment have improved dramatically in
the 20th century owing to unfettered access to energy.

Now, the (potentially) bad news: Fossil fuel use to supply energy has added
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the air. Greenhouse gases in
the air tend to retain some energy near the surface of the earth that would
otherwise escape to space. As a result, the globally-averaged temperature
near the surface of the earth should rise, perhaps considerably, in the
absence of any quenching effects.

So is this bad news correct? Is human activity significantly warming the
planet? To estimate the impact of the air's increased carbon dioxide
content, scientists run computer simulations of climate, sometimes 100-200
years into the future. The outcomes of the computer models differ among the
models. The middle-range estimate is around 2.5 C temperature rise by the
year 2100, based on specific assumptions about energy use, population and
the response of the climate to the bit of extra energy added by
human-produced greenhouse gases in the air.

The models are complicated, reflecting the fact that climate itself is
extremely complex. And a full simulation requires good knowledge of the
relevant physical parameters and their interactions. Such a simulation
requires knowing trillions of variables. But the computing capability does
not yet even exist to run a full model, and knowledge of many of the
physical processes required is lacking.

The natural greenhouse effect mainly arises from water vapor at altitudes
above 1 to 2 miles, plus water droplets and ice crystals in clouds. Yet
considerable uncertainty exists in those processes. It's true that all
global climate models work with these uncertainties, and the calculations
can continue in the absence of knowing the physical process. But checking
the reliability of the calculations still poses an enormous hurdle.

It's as if the owner of a manufacturing facility wants to calculate its
profit or loss. But the owner does not know two significant items: the cost
of personnel, and the cost of operating the site. Still, the spreadsheet can
be computed. But the outcome will have a bias - or systematic error in
scientific phrasing - that contains major uncertainty.

No Substitute for the Scientific Method

One fashionable detour around the hard fact that water vapor and cloud
processes are poorly understood is to average the outcomes of different
simulations. But if each model misses the physics, then how reliable is the
average of all the biased outcomes? Not much.

So be thankful for the scientific method, which insists that a prediction -
such as the outcome of a computer simulation -- be checked against reliable
measurements - such as changes in temperature and precipitation.

When we do that we find that the current computer simulations are
exaggerating the globally-averaged warming that should have occurred in the
last decades, if the models they use were correct.

According to the best measurements available, the response of the climate to
the small amount of energy added by humans from increased carbon dioxide in
the air has been small. This contradicts the model results.

For example, in the 20th century, the global average surface temperature
rose about 0.5 C. At first glance the warming seems attributable to human
fossil fuel use, which increased sharply in the 20th century. But the 20th
century temperature shows three distinct trends: (1) strong warming of about
0.5 C beginning in the late 19th century and peaking around 1940; (2) a
cooling from 1940 until the late 1970s; and (3) a modest warming trend from
the late 1970s to the present, discounting the large natural warming pulse
of the 1997-98 El Nino.

About 80% of the carbon dioxide from human activities entered the air after
1940. Note first that a substantial warming occurred early in the century,
before 1940 - prior to the major buildup of the air's carbon dioxide
concentration. After 1940, the surface temperature fell, and continued to
fall through most of the 1970s. Since the late 1970s, surface temperature
has risen. That means that the early 20th century warming must be largely
natural, and that the human effects can be at most around 0.1 C per decade -
the maximum amount of warming trend seen since the late 1970s.

And even that small recent global warming trend at the surface may not be
attributable to human action. In the last decades, new technology space
instruments have yielded critical information on the human effect on global
climate change.

Computer simulations of climate also predict warming of both the surface the
lowest layer of air - the lower troposphere (from roughly 5,000 to 28,000
feet). But the records from microwave sensors aboard satellites and
validated independently by instruments carried aloft by balloons show that
the large human-made warming trend predicted by computer simulations is
absent. The lower troposphere satellite records are essentially global in
coverage (unlike the surface record that extends, at best, over 20% of the
surface of the earth), and precise. While there are multi-year increases and
declines in temperature -- the strong El Nino warming pulse in 1997-1998,
for example -- the human global warming trend of approximately 0.5 C
forecast for the length of the record is not seen.

The record from balloons confirms the lack of a global warming trend from
human activities. This record extends back to 1958, although with less dense
spatial coverage than the record from satellites. According to that record,
the lower troposphere shows a substantial warming in 1976-1977, owing to a
natural, periodic shift in the Pacific Ocean that influences the global
average temperature. But there is no significant global warming trend that
could be attributed to humans before or after the Great Pacific Climate
Shift of 1976-1977.

Looking at the best data and comparing them to the output of the computer
simulations reveals that the simulations exaggerate warming. They exaggerate
warming at the surface and, to a greater degree, warming in the lower
troposphere. The computer results are also, presumably, exaggerating the
forecasts of future warming.

And that's the good news from science for which we should be thankful. It
means that the human effect on global warming is small and slow to develop.
That allows time to continue to improve measurements and computer
simulations of climate that will better define the magnitude of human-made
warming. In turn, leaders can create a meaningful energy policy - one that
is both effective and cost-efficient, while energy use continues to help
feed and lift millions from suffering and poverty.

Copyright 2001, Tech Central Station

================
(2) UNKNOWNS & UNCERTAINTIES IN MODELLING CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC
CO2 EMISSIONS

Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions:
unknowns and uncertainties
Willie Soon (wsoon@cfa.harvard.edu) 1,2,*, Sallie Baliunas 1,2 , Sherwood B.
Idso 3 , Kirill Ya. Kondratyev 4, Eric S. Posmentier 5. CLIMATE RESEARCH 18:
259-275, 2001

A likelihood of disastrous global environmental consequences has been
surmised as a result of projected increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions. These estimates are based on computer climate modeling, a branch
of science still in its infancy despite recent substantial strides in
knowledge. Because the expected anthropogenic climate forcings are
relatively small compared to other background and forcing factors (internal
and external), the credibility of the modeled global and regional responses
rests on the validity of the models. We focus on this important question of
climate model validation. Specifically, we review common deficiencies in
general circulation model (GCM) calculations of atmospheric temperature,
surface temperature, precipitation and their spatial and temporal
variability. These deficiencies arise from complex problems associated with
parameterization of multiply interacting climate components, forcings and
feedbacks, involving especially clouds and oceans. We also review examples
of expected climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO2 forcing. Given the host
of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but important task of climate
modeling, the unique attribution of observed current climate change to
increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, including the relatively
well-observed latest 20 yr, is not possible. We further conclude that the
incautious use of GCMs to make future climate projections from incomplete or
unknown forcing scenarios is antithetical to the intrinsically heuristic
value of models. Such uncritical application of climate models has led to
the commonly held but erroneous impression that modeling has proven or
substantiated the hypothesis that CO2 added to the air has caused or will
cause significant global warming. An assessment of the merits of GCMs and
their use in suggesting a discernible human influence on global climate can
be found in the joint World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations
Environmental Programme's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
reports (1990, 1995 and the up-coming 2001 report). Our review highlights
only the enormous scientific difficulties facing the calculation of climatic
effects of added atmospheric CO2 in a GCM. The purpose of such a limited
review of the deficiencies of climate model physics and the use of GCMs is
to illuminate areas for improvement. Our review does not disprove a
significant anthropogenic influence on global climate.

Addresses:
1 Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, Massachusetts
02138, USA
2 Mount Wilson Observatory, Mount Wilson, California 91023, USA
3 US Water Conservation Laboratory, Phoenix, Arizona 85040, USA
4 Research Centre for Ecological Safety, Russian Academy of Sciences, St.
Petersburg 197110, Russia
5 Long Island University, Brooklyn, New York 11201, USA

Inter-Research 2001

===================
(3) GOSH: SUN APPEARS TO BE MAJOR CAUSE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

>From CO2 Science Magazine, 28 November 2001
http://www.co2science.org/edit/v4_edit/v4n48edit.htm.

The Variable Energy Output of the Sun Appears to Be the Major Determinant of
Decadal- to Millennial-Scale Global Climate Change

What is responsible for the approximate 1500-year cycle of global climate
change that has been intensely studied in the region of the North Atlantic
Ocean and demonstrated to prevail throughout glacial and interglacial
periods alike?  This is the question Bond et al. (2001) set out to answer in
a study of ice-rafted debris found in three North Atlantic deep-sea sediment
cores and cosmogenic nuclides (10Be and 14C) sequestered in the Greenland
ice cap (10Be) and Northern Hemispheric tree rings (14C).

Based on arduous analyses of the deep-sea sediment cores that yielded the
variable-with-depth amounts of three proven proxies for the prior presence
of overlying drift-ice, the scientists were able to discern and, with the
help of an accelerator mass spectrometer, date a number of recurring
alternate periods of relative cold and warmth that wended their way through
the entire 12,000-year expanse of the Holocene.  The mean duration of the
several complete climatic cycles thus delineated was 1340 years, the cold
and warm nodes of the latter of which oscillations, in the words of Bond et
al., were "broadly correlative with the so called 'Little Ice Age' and
'Medieval Warm Period'."

The signal accomplishment of the scientists' study was the linking of these
millennial-scale climate oscillations - and their imbedded centennial-scale
oscillations - with similar-scale oscillations in cosmogenic nuclide
production, which are known to be driven by contemporaneous oscillations in
the energy output of the sun.  In fact, Bond et al. were able to report that
"over the last 12,000 years virtually every centennial time-scale increase
in drift ice documented in our North Atlantic records was tied to a solar
minimum."  In light of this observation they concluded that "a solar
influence on climate of the magnitude and consistency implied by our
evidence could not have been confined to the North Atlantic," suggesting
that the cyclical climatic effects of the variable solar inferno are
experienced throughout the world.

At this point of their paper, the international team of scientists had
pretty much verified a number of things we have regularly reported on our
website over the past several years, i.e., that in spite of the contrary
claims of a host of climate alarmists, the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm
Period were (1) real, (2) global, (3) solar-induced, and (4) but the latest
examples of uninterrupted alternating intervals of relative cold and warmth
that stretch back in time through glacial and interglacial periods alike.
[For more information on topics 1-3, see Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm
Period in our Subject Index; for additional material on topic 3, see Solar
Effects (Climate); for information on topic 4, see Climate Oscillations.]

Because these several subjects are of such great significance, particularly
to the global warming debate that currently rages over the climate
model-predicted consequences of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, Bond and his
band of researchers went on to cite additional evidence in support of the
implications of their work.  With respect to the global extent of the
climatic impact of the solar radiation variations they detected (topics 2
and 3 above, with 1 implied), they made explicit reference to confirmatory
studies conducted in Scandinavia, Greenland, the Netherlands, the Faroe
Islands, Oman, the Sargasso Sea, coastal West Africa, the Cariaco Basin,
equatorial East Africa, and the Yucatan Peninsula, demonstrating thereby
that "the footprint of the solar impact on climate we have documented
extend[s] from polar to tropical latitudes."  Also in support of topic 3,
they noted that "the solar-climate links implied by our record are so
dominant over the last 12,000 years ... it seems almost certain that the
well-documented connection between the Maunder solar minimum and the coldest
decades of the LIA could not have been a coincidence," further noting that
their findings support previous suggestions that both the Little Ice Age and
Medieval Warm Period "may have been partly or entirely linked to changes in
solar irradiance."

Another point reiterated by Bond et al. is that the oscillations in
drift-ice they studied "persist across the glacial termination and well into
the last glaciation, suggesting that the cycle is a pervasive feature of the
climate system."  At two of their coring sites, in fact, they identified a
series of such cyclical variations that extended throughout all of the
previous interglacial and were "strikingly similar to those of the
Holocene."  Here they could also well have cited the work of Oppo et al.
(1998), who observed similar climatic oscillations in a sediment core that
covered the span of time from 340,000 to 500,000 years before present, and
that of Raymo et al. (1998), who pushed back the time of the cycles'
earliest known occurrence to well over one million years ago.

So how do the small changes in solar radiation inferred from the cosmogenic
nuclide variations bring about such significant and pervasive shifts in
earth's global climate?  In answer to this question, which has long plagued
proponents of a solar-climate link, Bond et al. describe a scenario whereby
solar-induced changes high in the stratosphere are propagated downward
through the atmosphere to the earth's surface, where they likely provoke
changes in North Atlantic Deep Water formation that alter the global
Thermohaline Circulation.  In light of the plausibility of this scenario,
they suggest that "the solar signals thus may have been transmitted through
the deep ocean as well as through the atmosphere, further contributing to
their amplification and global imprint."

Concluding their landmark paper, the authors say the results of their study
"demonstrate that the earth's climate system is highly sensitive to
extremely weak perturbations in the sun's energy output," noting that their
work "supports the presumption that solar variability will continue to
influence climate in the future." It is readily evident, therefore, that the
study of Bond et al. provides ample ammunition for defending the premise
that the global warming of the past century or so may well have been nothing
more than the solar-mediated recovery of the earth from the chilly
conditions of the most recent Little Ice Age, and that any further warming
of the planet that might occur would likely be nothing more than a
continuation of the same solar-mediated cycle that is destined to usher the
globe into the next Medieval-like or Modern Warm Period.  Consequently,
since there's plenty of precedence for this scenario - it's happened over
and over for more than a million years - and none for a warming of the
planet as a consequence of atmospheric CO2 enrichment (see CO2-Temperature
Correlations in our Subject Index), it would seem the height of folly to
implement any energy policy that would restrict anthropogenic CO2 emissions
for the avowed purpose of attempting to prevent future global warming. It's
not CO2 that's been causing the earth to warm. It's the sun, stupid!

Dr. Sherwood B. Idso
Dr. Keith E. Idso

References
Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M.N., Showers, W.,
Hoffmann, S., Lotti-Bond, R., Hajdas, I. and Bonani, G.  2001.  Persistent
solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene.
www.sciencexpress.org / 15 November 2001.

Oppo, D.W., McManus, J.F. and Cullen, J.L.  1998.  Abrupt climate events
500,000 to 340,000 years ago: Evidence from subpolar North Atlantic
sediments.  Science 279: 1335-1338.

Raymo, M.E., Ganley, K., Carter, S., Oppo, D.W. and McManus, J.  1998.
Millennial-scale climate instability during the early Pleistocene epoch.
Nature 392: 699-702.
 
Copyright 2001.  Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change


==============
(4) FOREST MANAGEMENT MAY MITIGATE GLOBAL WARMING

>From Science Daily, 27 November 2001
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/11/011127004952.htm
 
University Of Wisconsin-Madison, 27 November 2001
 
Date:   Posted 11/27/2001

Forest Management May Mitigate Global Warming

MADISON -- A study published today, Nov. 23, in the journal Science suggests
that forest management may be used to restrain the increase of atmospheric
carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas.

Many groups have proposed forest management as a simple way to offset global
warming. More trees, they argue, will remove from the atmosphere more carbon
dioxide, a gas plants use to grow and reproduce. But, numerous climatic and
ecological factors confound this apparently simple solution, report
researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and Harvard University.

During the last century, the world's average temperatures have risen by one
degree and sea levels have risen by more than six inches as a result of
increased amounts of both natural and human-produced greenhouse gases such
as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Many scientists believe high levels of carbon dioxide, which is released
when fossil fuels and wood products burn, could permanently alter the
environment.

To investigate forest management as a method for controlling global warming,
researchers conducted a decade-long study of carbon exchange between the
atmosphere and Harvard Forest, a 60-year-old forest stand dominated by
northern red oaks. Specifically, they measured how much carbon the trees and
soils stored and how much they released.

In the short term, carbon exchange depended primarily on physical and
climatic factors such as time of day or season. "At night, the trees
respire, so more carbon dioxide is released from the forest," says Carol
Barford, one of the researchers who now works at the UW-Madison Center for
Sustainability and the Global Environment. "During the day, the trees
photosynthesize, which requires the net uptake of carbon."

Seasonal patterns also produced fluctuations. The date the fall and spring
seasons began, the amount of snow covering the ground or the amount of rain
during the summer all seem to affect carbon exchange, she says. "Discrete
weather features make a big difference in carbon balance from year to year."
But Barford adds, "Over a decade, all those variations wash out."

The researchers' results suggest that, in the long term, ecological factors
-- not climatic ones -- change carbon balance. The types of tree species in
the forest, their growth rate and the age of the forest can all alter carbon
uptake. These factors, Barford notes, can be influenced by forest
management.

At maturity, for example, trees store less carbon and remove less carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere. The number of dead trees also affects carbon
balance. When a tree decays, Barford explains, it releases some of its
carbon back into the air.

Barford and the Harvard team used two methods to determine carbon dioxide
levels. A tower-based method, known as eddy covariance, measured the net
storage and net release of carbon into the air. Ground-based biometry, a
longer-standing method, measured changes in the trees' diameter, a direct
indication of carbon storage. Both measurements produced similar results --
an important finding, Barford says, that brings validation to the newer
method.

These results suggest that forest management can help mitigate global
warming by controlling carbon exchange -- but numerous factors should be
considered. "What to do about forest management is a complex issue," Barford
stresses. "Our results do not lead clearly to any one management
recommendation."

============
(5) THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD IN GREENLAND

>From Co2 Science Magazine, 28 November 2001
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2001/v4n48c2.htm
------------------------------------------
Reference
Wagner, B. and Melles, M. 2001. A Holocene seabird record from Raffles So
sediments, East Greenland, in response to climatic and oceanic changes.
Boreas 30: 228-239.

What was done
The authors analyzed a 3.5-m-long sediment core taken from a lake (Raffels
So) on an island (Raffles O) situated just off Liverpool Land on the east
coast of Greenland for a number of properties related to the past presence
of seabirds there, obtaining a 10,000-year record that tells us much about
the region's climatic history.  Key to the study were biogeochemical data
that, in the words of the authors, reflect "variations in seabird breeding
colonies in the catchment which influence nutrient and cadmium supply to the
lake."  Previously-derived proxy records of temperature from two other
locations were also employed in the study.

What was learned
The authors' data reveal sharp increases in the values of the parameters
they measured between about 1100 and 700 years before present (BP),
indicative of the summer presence of significant numbers of seabirds during
that "medieval warm period," which had been preceded by a
several-hundred-year period of little to no (inferred) bird presence.
Thereafter, their data suggested another absence of birds during "a
subsequent Little Ice Age," which they note was "the coldest period since
the early Holocene in East Greenland."  The data also show signs of a
"resettlement of seabirds during the last 100 years, indicated by an
increase of organic matter in the lake sediment and confirmed by bird
observations."  However, values of the most recent biogeochemical
measurements are not as great as those obtained from the earlier Medieval
Warm Period.  Reconstructed proxy temperature histories from two Greenland
ice cores lead to the same conclusion, indicating higher temperatures during
the period from 1100 to 700 years BP than what has been observed over the
most recent hundred years.

What it means
As with many other paleoclimate investigations - and contrary to the
repeated claims of climate alarmists - the results of this "paleobird" study
suggest that the global warming of the last century has not yet returned the
planet to temperatures as high as those it experienced during the Medieval
Warm Period. Hence, there is no compelling reason to invoke the historical
rise in the air's CO2 content as the cause of any portion of the most recent
increase in the globe's near-surface air temperature.
 
Copyright 2001. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change 

============
(6) ECOLOGICAL CHANGES IN TROPICAL MONTANE CLOUD FORESTS: HARBRINGERS OF
GLOBAL WARMING?

>From CO2 Science Magazine, 28 November 2001
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2001/v4n48c1.htm

Reference
Foster, P. 2001. The potential negative impacts of global climate change on
tropical montane cloud forests. Earth-Science Reviews 55: 73-106.

Background
In our Editorial of 21 November 2001, we described how a pair of papers
published in Nature back in 1999 blamed global warming for wreaking havoc on
tropical montane cloud forests, particularly in the highland areas of
Monteverde, Costa Rica, after which we described a new study (published in
Science), which convincingly demonstrates that the actual cause of the
ecological disruptions observed there was the past century's deforestation
of upwind lowlands. We here review a newer paper produced by one of the
authors of one of the Nature papers that was written and accepted for
publication long before the appearance of the recent Science study and which
thus still holds to the old view of the issue.

What was done
In a major review paper, the author (astrophysicist Pru Foster) describes
some of the special features of tropical montane cloud forests, emphasizing
the negative impacts she and others believe global warming may have on these
unique ecosystems.

What was learned
Among other things, Foster draws attention to potential increases in "dry
seasons, droughts, hurricanes and intense rain storms, all of which might
increase damage to the cloud forests."  She also suggests that "coming
climate changes appear very likely to upset the current dynamic equilibrium
of the cloud forest," resulting in "biodiversity loss, altitude shifts in
species' ranges and subsequent community reshuffling, and possibly forest
death."  Foster notes, for example, that global climate models predict
"altitude shifts in the climatic optimum for mountain ecotones of hundreds
of meters by the time of CO2 doubling," which she says implies the "complete
replacement of many of the narrow altitude range cloud forests by lower
altitude ecosystems, as well as the expulsion of peak residing cloud forests
into extinction."  In the case of the Monteverde Cloud Forest in Costa Rica,
she states that these ominous changes are already underway, i.e., that "the
height of the cloudbank is already rising, resulting in less cloud
immersion, and thus driving local extinctions through enhanced dryness,"
calling the intense sensitivity of the cloud forest "an early warning
system" of worse things to come.

What it means
"Perhaps the warning bell is already ringing," says Foster with respect to
the ecological changes observed in the Monteverde Cloud Forest; and in this
assessment she is correct.  But of what it warns us is not what she
contends.  Her ignorance of the new thinking on the subject (at the time she
wrote her review) tends to draw our attention from the real cause of the
various biological perturbations in the former land of mists (deforestation
of upwind lowlands) to a purported problem (CO2-induced global warming) that
is likely unreal, insoluble (if it were real) and (in any case) a monetary
black hole - to put it in astrophysical terms Foster should clearly
understand - into which we can eternally throw ungodly amounts of money and
never see a glimmer of a return on the "investment," which, of course, keeps
us from effectively dealing with the true cause of the local climate changes
and ensuing ecological perturbations.

Yes, the "canary" of the Monteverde Cloud Forest "coal mine" is sending us a
message, alright; but it is not one of impending disaster due to CO2-induced
global warming (again, see our Editorial of 21 November 2001).  Rather, it
is telling us that certain of the local activities of man are having
significant deleterious local consequences.  Clearly, if we all took care of
our own backyards, the earth would have no trouble taking care of itself.

Copyright 2001.  Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change


===============
(7) FACE EXPERIMENTS (TREES)

Frtom CO2 Science Magazine, 28 November 2001
http://www.co2science.org/subject/f/summaries/facetrees.htm.

In controlled experiments, plants subjected to atmospheric CO2 enrichment
almost always exhibit increases in rates of photosynthesis and biomass
production under both optimal and less than optimal growth conditions.
Critics, however, have sometimes suggested that results obtained from CO2
enrichment experiments conducted in growth cabinets, greenhouses, and even
open-top chambers may not reflect real-world plant responses to atmospheric
CO2 enrichment due to changes in microclimate caused by the experimental
enclosures.  To answer this criticism, Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE)
technology was developed as a means to increase the air's CO2 concentration
around vegetation while having minimal impact on the vegetation's
microclimate.  In this summary, we review the results of such FACE
experiments conducted on various trees, many of which were studied as they
grew naturally in established forests.

In 1996, circular FACE plots 30 meters in diameter were established in a
13-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantation growing on a
nutrient-poor soil in North Carolina, USA, which plots were thereafter
maintained so as to provide atmospheric CO2 concentrations of either 360 or
560 ppm to the trees growing within them.  Although the plantation was
dominated by pines, several hardwood species were also present beneath the
primary coniferous canopy; and all were studied for their various responses
to the 200-ppm increase in the air's CO2 concentration.

In one study, photosynthetic rates in the dominant pine species were
increased by up to 65% (Hymus et al., 1999).  The elevated CO2 also
increased photosynthetic rates in understory saplings of Acer rubrum, Carya
glabra, Liquidambar styraciflua and Cercis canadensis by 50, 75, 100 and
160%, respectively (DeLucia and Thomas, 2000).  In addition, rates of growth
respiration - which is the amount of CO2 respired when plants construct new
tissues - was decreased by elevated CO2 in both pine and Liquidambar
styraciflua, by 21 and 39%, respectively (Hamilton et al., 2001).  Together,
the CO2 -induced increases in photosynthesis and the concomitant reductions
in respiratory carbon loss contributed to greater growth rates in the
CO2-enriched trees.  After one year of atmospheric CO2 enrichment, for
example, the growth rate of CO2-enriched pine trees was about 24% greater
than that of control trees growing in ambient air (Naidu and DeLucia, 1999);
and after two years, the CO2-induced growth stimulation stood at 26%
(DeLucia et al., 1999).  Furthermore, in a truly stunning observation,
atmospheric CO2 enrichment was found to increase reproductive cone
production in the CO2-enriched trees by 140%, while it enhanced seed
production by approximately three-fold (LaDeau and Clark, 2001).

In the same experimental plots, Herrick and Thomas (1999) took a closer look
at photosynthesis in one of the dominant understory hardwood species:
sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua).  They determined from extensive seasonal
monitoring that CO2-induced percentage increases in photosynthesis rose with
increasing air temperature and water stress.  In June, for example,
atmospheric CO2 enrichment increased rates of photosynthesis in sun and
shade leaves by 92 and 54%, respectively.  In August, however, when air
temperatures were 4C warmer and rainfall was 66% less, elevated CO2
increased photosynthetic rates in sun and shade leaves by166 and 68%,
respectively.

Rounding out this family of FACE studies, circular plots receiving
atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 390 and 540 ppm were established in 1998
in a ten-year-old stand of sweetgum trees growing in a forest plantation on
nutrient-rich soils in Tennessee, USA.  In this environment, Norby et al.
(2001) reported that the 150-ppm increase in the air's CO2 concentration
increased the trees' biomass production by an average of 24% over the first
two years of experimentation; while Wullschleger and Norby (2001) reported
that it reduced seasonal rates of transpirational water loss by 12%.  After
dividing seasonal dry matter production by seasonal transpiration, the
latter authors also determined that the extra CO2 increased stand-level
water-use efficiency by 28%.

The results obtained from these FACE experiments strongly suggest that the
ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content will increase the photosynthetic
rates, biomass production and carbon sequestration potentials of many of
earth's trees, even if they are growing under the less-than-optimal and
stressful conditions of poor soil fertility, low soil moisture and elevated
air temperature.  The increase in CO2 thereby removed from the atmosphere
should serve as a powerful natural break upon the rate of rise of the air's
CO2 content.

References
DeLucia, E.H., Hamilton, J.G., Naidu, S.L., Thomas, R.B., Andrews, J.A.,
Finzi, A., Lavine, M., Matamala, R., Mohan, J.E., Hendrey, G.R. and
Schlesinger, W.H.  1999.  Net primary production of a forest ecosystem with
experimental CO2 enrichment.  Science 284: 1177-1179.

DeLucia, E.H. and Thomas, R.B.  2000.  Photosynthetic responses to CO2
enrichment of four hardwood species in a forest understory.  Oecologia 122:
11-19.

Hamilton, J.G., Thomas, R.B. and DeLucia, E.H.  2001.  Direct and indirect
effects of elevated CO2 on leaf respiration in a forest ecosystem.  Plant,
Cell and Environment 24: 975-982.

Herrick, J.D. and Thomas, R.B.  1999.  Effects of CO2 enrichment on the
photosynthetic light response of sun and shade leaves of canopy sweetgum
trees (Liquidambar styraciflua) in a forest ecosystem.  Tree Physiology 19:
779-786.

Hymus, G.J., Ellsworth, D.S., Baker, N.R. and Long, S.P.  1999.  Does
free-air carbon dioxide enrichment affect photochemical energy use by
evergreen trees in different seasons?  A chlorophyll fluorescence study of
mature loblolly pine.  Plant Physiology 120: 1183-1191.

LaDeau, S.L. and Clark, J.S.  2001.  Rising CO2 levels and the fecundity of
forest trees.  Science 292: 95-98

Naidu, S.L. and DeLucia, E.H.  1999.  First-year growth response of trees in
an intact forest exposed to elevated CO2.  Global Change Biology 5: 609-613.

Norby, R.J., Todd, D.E., Fults, J. and Johnson, D.W.  2001.  Allometric
determination of tree growth in a CO2-enriched sweetgum stand.  New
Phytologist 150: 477-487.

Wullschleger, S.D. and Norby, R.J.  2001.  Sap velocity and canopy
transpiration in a sweetgum stand exposed to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE).
New Phytologist 150: 489-498.
 
Copyright 2001.  Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change


============
(8) TRMM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DIVERSE INSIGHTS INTO CLIMATE PROCESSES ON ITS
FOURTH ANNIVERSARY

>From Andrew Yee <ayee@nova.astro.utoronto.ca>

Timothy R. Tawney
Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.        November 26, 2001
ttawney@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov
Phone: (301) 614-6573

RELEASE NO: 01-103

TRMM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DIVERSE INSIGHTS INTO CLIMATE PROCESSES ON ITS
FOURTH ANNIVERSARY

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, the world's first
space mission dedicated to observing and understanding tropical rainfall,
has successfully completed its fourth year of continuous data gathering by
providing exciting new insight into tropical and global
rainfall and hurricanes.

Initially designed as a three-year mission, the orbiter is continuing to
collect a variety of measurements which are being used to answer a diverse
array of key climate and weather questions related to Earth's hydrological
cycle. These questions range from microscopic processes that control the
formation of snowflakes and raindrops inside clouds, to the shifting
global-scale patterns of El Nino rainfall. The TRMM satellite provides
valuable insights into the processes that energize city-sized thunderstorm
clouds and other violent storms, such as hurricanes and monsoon rains over
Southeast Asia.

"The vast range of rainfall processes being studied by TRMM, from the scale
of the entire Earth down to one millionth of a meter, is akin to a
physician's study of the human body, beginning with the organism as a whole
and progressing downward to the molecular level of DNA," stated Dr. Jeff
Halverson, TRMM Education and Outreach Scientist at NASA's Goddard Space
Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

TRMM science has recently revealed some exciting and startling insights at
all of these levels of analysis. On one end of the science spectrum, the
international team of TRMM investigators is learning about the ways in which
countless tiny cloud particles less than 1 mm across interact
inside clouds to produce rain. With the satellite flying overhead, specially
equipped research aircraft probe the cloud interiors with sensitive cloud
particle detection equipment. One crucial finding is that microscopic dust
and soot particles, which commonly arise from polluted air, can interfere
with this process of rain formation. The findings indicate that "dirty"
clouds are less likely to produce rain than their cleaner-air counterparts,
thus influencing studies of pollution and climate interaction.

On the larger scale of rain clouds themselves, insights are being discovered
into why there is a tendency for heavy rains to fall primarily over heated
tropical land masses by day, but over the vast ocean regions mainly at
night. In addition, it is now known that the greatest concentration of
lightning on the Earth is centered over the African Congo. The reasons for
this lightning pattern remain unclear, but solving this puzzle is
nevertheless critical for understanding how the global electrical circuit
operates.

At the global climate scale, migrating rainfall patterns across the Pacific
Ocean during El Nino and La Nina episodes are being mapped with a greater
degree of accuracy than ever before possible, which can lead to better
prediction of droughts and floods around the world. By combining the TRMM
rainfall data with other new satellites that map winds and atmospheric
temperature structure, scientists are discovering key new processes that
lead to the birth and
intensification of deadly tropical storms, discoveries that may help in
storm prediction.

Launched in 1997, the TRMM satellite received a new lease on life in August
2001, when it was boosted into a higher orbit to extend its life. Halverson
said it is anticipated that the TRMM satellite will remain fully operational
for up to six years, so the prospects for
further discoveries about rainfall and its impacts on society remain
excellent. These discoveries, when combined with oceanic and atmospheric
data from other existing and planned satellites from NASA and the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are expected to yield fresh
insights into how the Earth's water, land and atmospheric systems interact
to create both the everyday-type rainfall systems and rare catastrophic
flood events. These data about the Earth's water cycle will then help
meteorologists make improvements to forecasts, and help climatologists
better understand how the global climate is changing.

TRMM is a joint U.S.-Japanese mission and part of NASA's Earth Science
Enterprise, a long-term research program designed to study the Earth's land,
oceans, air, ice and life as a total system.

Extensive video resource material is available on the TRMM mission. For more
information, please contact Rachel Weintraub at 301-286-0918.

Information and images from the TRMM mission are available on the Internet
at:
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/

============================
* LETTERS TO THE MODERATOR *
============================

(9) RE: GLOBAL WARMING MORE COMMON THAN THOUGHT

>From John Michael Williams <jwill@AstraGate.net>

Hi Benny.

I'd like to alert readers to some of the very poor science, in my opinion,
on which much of the head-butting on global warming is based.  For example,
making an elementary mistake, in 21 November 2001 CCNET,

(1) GLOBAL WARMING MORE COMMON THAN THOUGHT
 
NEWS SERVICES
210 Pittsboro Street, Campus Box 6210
Chapel Hill, NC  27599-6210
(919) 962-2091   FAX: (919) 962-2279
www.unc.edu/news/newsserv

"Warming bursts may have been triggered by large volcanic eruptions
or submarine landslides that released carbon dioxide and methane, both
greenhouse gases," he said. "Besides reducing the ocean's oxygen-carrying
capacity, warming also increased the water's corrosive characteristics and
dissolved shells of surface-dwelling organisms before they could settle to
the bottom."

It is correct that water warming reduces sea life (biomass), including plant
life, by suffocation caused by expulsion of dissolved gasses into the
atmosphere. The writer thus does readers a service by correcting authors and
editors of CO2 Science Magazine, in some of their speculations.

However, there are no organic "corrosive characteristics" associated with
temperature increase.  In fact, increased temperature makes the calcium
carbonate of shelled sea animals less soluble in water and hence more
effective. Closely related, and in addition, heating drives out CO2,
reducing the carbonic acid concentration.

Temperature increases cause the oceans to support less life, as well as
making the water organically more inert. The atmosphere is an entirely
different question, and one should not assume that life in the two
environments will respond similarly to temperature changes.

Much of the confusion and disputation on "global warming" never would occur
if the antagonists would take time out in a college chemistry course. And do
some thinking before compiling long lists of citations done by peers of a
different species.

                         John
                     jwill@AstraGate.net
                     John Michael Williams

===============
(10) AND FINALLY: IT'S OFFICIAL - ENGLISH FOOTBALL TEAMS SCORE FEWER GOALS!

>From Nature, 27 November 2001
http://www.nature.com/nsu/011129/011129-8.html

27 November 2001
PHILIP BALL
 
Soccer teams worldwide are scoring more goals than they ought to be, whereas
English teams seem to follow statistical expectations. The news may delight
fans outside England, but it is puzzling the physicists who have found that
the chance of a high-scoring game is significantly greater than it may first
appear(1).

John Greenhough and colleagues at Warwick University in Coventry, England,
analysed the scores of over 135,000 football (soccer) games in the domestic
leagues of 169 countries, played between and 1999 and 2001.

They found that games with a total of more than 10 goals occur only once in
10,000 English top division matches (about once every 30 years), whereas
they make up about one in every 300 games worldwide - which means that there
is roughly one per day.

Low scoring games seem to follow a random probability distribution: the
chance of a particular score is more-or-less what one would expect if there
is a constant, random probability of a goal at any moment throughout the
game.

In such a random process, bigger scores become increasingly unlikely. There
are more 1-1 draws or 2-0 victories than there are 6-1 victories, for
example. According to the rules of statistics, the chance of a high score
should become less and less likely, the higher the scores become - something
called a Poisson distribution.

But physicists have known for several decades that football games are far
from normal. The chance of goal scoring doesn't stay even throughout a
match, but depends on the previous number of near-goals. The Poisson
distribution can be modified to allow for this, resulting in a 'negative
binomial probability distribution'.

In a further analysis Greenhough and colleagues find that for English league
and championship matches for the seasons 1970-1971 and 2000-2001 the total
scores of all matches fit a negative binomial distribution well. In
contrast, domestic matches worldwide produce many more 'extreme events'
(high scores) than predicted by this statistical distribution.

Why the difference? Does it mean that the English defence or goalkeepers are
unusually good, or the strikers are unusually poor? Possibly, but there may
be a statistical explanation: in terms of probability, football games may
behave more like the stock market or earthquakes.

In recent years, statistical physicists have realized that probabilistic
processes underlying these complex phenomena show something called strong
correlations.

Correlations arise when the behaviour of one part of a system is strongly
influenced by the behaviour of other parts. In football, this suggests that
goals become increasingly likely as their number mounts up. Fans and players
will already have an intuitive notion of the effect. When trailing by 5-0,
say, a defence is more likely to 'crack' than when the score is 2-0. Even if
the teams are well matched, the game becomes more 'volatile' if it reaches,
say, 4-4: goals then begin to flow more readily.

Why English teams don't show this effect so strongly is a question sure to
provoke endless debate among armchair strategists.
  
References
Greenhough, J., Birch, P. C., Chapman, S. C.& Rowlands, G. Football goal
distributions and extremal statistics. Preprint, (2001).

Nature News Service / Macmillan Magazines Ltd 2001

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