PLEASE NOTE:


*

CCNet Climate Change & Climate Scares, 29 November 2000
-------------------------------------------------------


Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. 
Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumoured by many.
Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books. 
Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders.
Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations.
But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason
and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it.
   -- Gautama Buddha


"I suspect that the greenhouse lobby have under-estimated the role
of solar variability in climate change. However I am not in favour
of polluting the atmosphere, for whatever reason."
   -- John Butler, Armagh Observatory, 28 November 2000



(1) SUN'S WARMING INFLUENCE 'UNDER-ESTIMATED'
    BBC News Online, 28 November 2000

(2) BRITAIN'S FLOODING 'NOT CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING'
    The Sunday Telegraph, 26 November 2000

(3) SCIENTISTS DEVELOPING ARTIFICIAL PLANTS TO COUNTER CARBON EMISSIONS
    SpaceDaily, 27 November 2000

(4) SOUTH PACIFIC BATTERED BY GLOBAL WARMING
    ENN News, 27 November 2000

(5) NO ACCELERATION IN PACIFIC SEA RISE
    BBC News Online, 22 November 2000

(6) FALLING SEA LEVEL UPSETS THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING
    The Daily Telegraph, 6 August 2000

(7) GLOBAL WARMING: THE ORIGIN AND NATURE OF THE ALLEGED SCIENTIFIC
CONSENSUS
    Richard S. Lindzen, MIT

(8) ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE
    Climate Research 13:1999

(9) URBAN BIAS IN TEMPERATURE TIME SERIES
    CO2 Science, 29 November 2000

(10) MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD AND LITTLE ICE AGE IN CENTAL EUROPE
     CO2 Science, 29 November 2000

(11) AND FINALLY: THE ENDLESS WALTZ, OR THE BEAUTY (LA FRANCE) AND THE BEAST
(UK)
     John L Daly

=====================
(1) SUN'S WARMING INFLUENCE 'UNDER-ESTIMATED'

From the BBC News Online, 28 November 2000
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_1045000/1045327.stm

By BBC News Online science editor Dr David Whitehouse

Scientists at Armagh Observatory claim a unique weather record could show
that the Sun has been the main contributor to global warming over the past
two centuries.

The weather observations, made almost daily since 1795, comprise the longest
climate archive available for a single site in Ireland.

Dr John Butler, the astronomer in charge of the project, told BBC News
Online: "We can see global warming taking place over the past two centuries
that suggests that changes in the Sun are at least partially responsible."

However, the data will confuse some climate experts who argue that the
influence of changes in the Sun on rising temperatures has already been
studied, and discounted, as a major cause of global warming.

Longer is better

The observations began in 1795, a few years after the Armagh Observatory was
founded. Temperature, pressure and later rainfall, has been measured every
day with the exception of a period around 1825.

In all that time, the Armagh meteorological instruments have been moved only
about 20 metres.

"What makes the data so useful is that the site of the observatory has not
changed all that much in 200 years," said Dr Butler.

"Other weather stations have been engulfed by towns and cities that make the
long-term reliability of their data questionable."

The Armagh Observatory's weather archive spans two centuries
 
When analysed, the data allow the average temperature at Armagh to be
calculated to an accuracy of 0.1 deg C per decade.

Eventually the entire data set will be placed on the internet.

"It's quite apparent from our data that global warming, of about a degree C,
has been taking place for at least a hundred years," Dr Butler told BBC News
Online.

Shorter is warmer

The researchers point out that the mean average temperature at Armagh seems
to be related to the length of the Sun's activity cycle.

This cycle is on average 11 years in duration but it can vary a few years
either way.

"We have found that it gets cooler when the Sun's cycle is longer and that
Armagh is warmer when the cycle is shorter," said Dr Butler.

Scientists cannot yet explain how natural variations in the Sun's brightness
and activity may affect the Earth's climate.

While the Sun is about 0.1% brighter during shorter cycles the effect is not
enough to account for the observed warming trend.

"But the Sun's activity does affect the flux of cosmic rays, high-energy
particles from deep space, that strike our atmosphere," said Dr Butler.

Consequently it has been suggested that because cosmic rays are the main
source of ionisation in the Earth's atmosphere they may have an influence on
cloud formation.

Cloud cover

In general, the more cosmic rays that reach the Earth, the more low cloud
there is. However, a higher solar activity leads to lower cosmic ray flux
and reduced low cloud.

Low clouds cool the Earth by reflecting more solar radiation back into
space, so a drop in the amount of low cloud contributes to global warming.

High cloud does the opposite and tends to warm the Earth by reflecting more
of the Earth's infra-red radiation back to the ground.

It may be that changing cloud cover has caused global warming over the past
century or so.

However, Dr Butler is cautious about this issue: "There is currently very
little evidence for a low-altitude cloud reduction over the past century.
But there is some evidence for a global increase in total cloud."

"I suspect that the greenhouse lobby have under-estimated the role of solar
variability in climate change," he added. "However I am not in favour of
polluting the atmosphere, for whatever reason."

Copyright 2000, BBC

=============
(2) BRITAIN'S FLOODING 'NOT CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING'

From The Sunday Telegraph, 26 November 2000
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=002549632124328&rtmo=lvF7wnnt&atmo=lvF7wnnt&pg=/et/00/11/26/wenv226.html
 
Britain's flooding 'not caused by global warming', say scientists

By Robert Matthews

CLAIMS by Government ministers and the media that Britain's recent spate of
bad weather is caused by global warming will be dismissed as scientific
nonsense this week by leading climate experts.
 
An international conference of experts on the European climate will be told
that the heavy rainfall and flooding of recent months is entirely consistent
with a well-known weather system, and shows no signs of being linked to
global warming. The rebuttal comes as John Prescott, the Deputy Prime
Minister, returns from negotiations in The Hague aimed at cutting greenhouse
gas levels and reducing global warming. According to environmentalists,
global warming is to blame for the stormy weather and floods of recent
months.

It is a claim which Government ministers have repeatedly endorsed, with Mr
Prescott claiming that Britain's recent floodings were "a wake-up call" on
global warming. Yet climate experts will reveal this week that the most
likely cause is the so-called North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a pattern of
atmospheric pressure which forms over the ocean.

FULL STORY at
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=002549632124328&rtmo=lvF7wnnt&atmo=lvF7wnnt&pg=/et/00/11/26/wenv226.html

=============
(3) SCIENTISTS DEVELOPING ARTIFICIAL PLANTS TO COUNTER CARBON EMISSIONS

From SpaceDaily, 27 November 2000
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/greenhouse-00zb.html

Sydney - Nov 27, 2000

Australian researchers are developing revolutionary technology that may help
to combat the Greenhouse Effect and create food and an alternative source of
fuel at the same time.

Scientists at CSIRO's Telecommunications and Industrial Physics are
developing artificial photosynthesis, which copies what plants do by taking
light and carbon dioxide and converting them to energy to produce food.

The researchers hope that this technology will be used one day to clean up
carbon dioxide waste and reduce the "Greenhouse Effect".

FULL STORY at http://www.spacedaily.com/news/greenhouse-00zb.html

=============
(4) SOUTH PACIFIC BATTERED BY GLOBAL WARMING

From ENN News, 27 November 2000
http://www.enn.com/news/wire-stories/2000/11/11272000/reu_pacific_40452.asp

Monday, November 27, 2000
By Diana Taylor
REUTERS

South Pacific island nations have suffered more than US $1 billion in
damages in the past 10 years from rising sea levels and tropical storms, the
World Bank said in a report on the impact of global warming.

The World Bank warned small island nations face millions of dollars in
damages each year as global warming causes sea levels to rise further and
fierce tropical storms to increase. [...]

The report titled "Cities, Seas and Storms: Managing Change in Pacific
Island Economies" warned rising temperatures not only cause polar ice to
melt and sea levels to rise, but also increases the intensity and frequency
of tropical storms.

The World Bank said island nations face significant losses in coastal
infrastructure and land, more intense cyclones and droughts, failure of
subsistence crops and fisheries, losses in coral reefs and the spread of
malaria and dengue fever.

With sea levels expected to rise 11-21cm (four-eight inches) by 2025 and
50-130cm (19-51 inches) by 2100 many Pacific islands face dangers
particularly during storms, it said.

FULL STORY at
http://www.enn.com/news/wire-stories/2000/11/11272000/reu_pacific_40452.asp

=============
(5) NO ACCELERATION IN PACIFIC SEA RISE

From the BBC News Online, 22 November 2000
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_1035000/1035489.stm

If the burning of fossil fuels is forcing the Earth to warm up, the rapid
rise in sea levels that some expect from the thermal expansion of the oceans
has yet to show itself clearly. [...] Dr Wolfgang Scherer, director of the
National Tidal Facility (NTF) of Flinders University, South Australia, which
undertook the review, told BBC News Online that the much larger increases in
global sea level predicted by some climate models were not apparent in their
regional data.
"There is no acceleration in sea level rise - none that we can discern, at
all," he said.....


=================
(6) FALLING SEA LEVEL UPSETS THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING

From The Daily Telegraph, 6 August 2000
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=002549632124328&rtmo=kNL37bop&atmo=hhhhhhhe&pg=/et/00/8/6/wsea06.html

THE 11,000 inhabitants of a tiny Pacific country that was predicted to
vanish under water because of the effects of global warming have been given
a reprieve because sea levels have begun to fall.

In the early 1990s, scientists forecast that the coral atoll of nine islands
- which is only 12ft above sea level at its highest point - would vanish
within decades because the sea was rising by up to 1.5in a year. However, a
new study has found that sea levels have since fallen by nearly 2.5in and
experts at Tuvalu's Meteorological Service in Funafuti, the islands'
administrative centre, said this meant they would survive for another 100
years.

FULL STORY at http://www.altgreen.com.au/Climate/000905evag.htm

=============
(7) GLOBAL WARMING: THE ORIGIN AND NATURE OF THE ALLEGED SCIENTIFIC
CONSENSUS

By Richard S. Lindzen

From Regulation
http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/reg15n2g.html

Richard S. Lindzen is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Most of the literate world today regards "global warming'' as both real and
dangerous. Indeed, the diplomatic activity concerning warming might lead one
to believe that it is the major crisis confronting mankind. The June 1992
Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, focused on international agreements
to deal with that threat, and the heads of state from dozens of countries
attended. I must state at the outset, that, as a scientist, I can find no
substantive basis for the warming scenarios being popularly described.
Moreover, according to many studies I have read by economists, agronomists,
and hydrologists, there would be little difficulty adapting to such warming
if it were to occur. Such was also the conclusion of the recent National
Research Council's report on adapting to global change. Many aspects of the
catastrophic scenario have already been largely discounted by the scientific
community. For example, fears of massive sea-level increases accompanied
many of the early discussions of global warming, but those estimates have
been steadily reduced by orders of magnitude, and now it is widely agreed
that even the potential contribution of warming to sea-level rise would be
swamped by other more important factors.

To show why I assert that there is no substantive basis for predictions of
sizeable global warming due to observed increases in minor greenhouse gases
such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons, I shall briefly
review the science associated with those predictions.

FULL PAPER at http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/reg15n2g.html

=============
(8) ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE

From Climate Research 13:1999
http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v13/n2/p149-164.html

Willie Soon1, Sallie L. Baliunas1, Arthur B. Robinson2, Zachary W. Robinson2


1 Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street,
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA
2 Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, 2251 Dick George Road,
Cave Junction, Oregon 97523, USA
 
ABSTRACT: A review of the literature concerning the environmental
consequences of increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to the
conclusion that increases during the 20th century have produced no
deleterious effects upon global climate or temperature. Increased carbon
dioxide has, however, markedly increased plant growth rates as inferred from
numerous laboratory and field experiments. There is no clear evidence, nor
unique attribution, of the global effects of anthropogenic CO2 on climate.
Meaningful integrated assessments of the environmental impacts of
anthropogenic CO2 are not yet possible because model estimates of global and
regional climate changes on interannual, decadal and centennial time scales
remain highly uncertain.

============
(9) URBAN BIAS IN TEMPERATURE TIME SERIES

From CO2 Science, 29 November 2000
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2000/v3n33c1.htm

Reference

Bohm, R. 1998. Urban bias in temperature time series - A case study for the
city of Vienna, Austria. Climatic Change 38: 113-128.

What was done
The author made use of nine urban, suburban and rural temperature records
(three of each type, selected as best on the basis of careful study from a
total of 34 available records) to determine the evolving nature of the heat
island of Vienna, Austria between 1951 and 1996, a 45-year period over which
the city experienced zero population growth.  Simultaneously, however, there
was a 20% decrease in woodland and a 30% decrease in grassland within the
city, as well as a doubling of the number of buildings, a ten-fold increase
in the number of cars, a 60% increase in street, pavement and parking area,
and a 2.5-fold increase in energy consumption.

What was learned
The suburban stations exhibited city-induced temperature increases ranging
from 0.11 to 0.21C over the 45-year period of the study, while the urban
stations experienced city-induced temperature increases ranging from zero,
in the historic center of the city, to 0.6C in the area of most intensive
urban development.

What it means
In the words of the author, "the case study of Vienna illustrates the
weakness inherent in studies which use only two stations to describe urban
heat islands or use linear regression models to connect population directly
to heat island intensity and trend," both of which procedures are typically
used in making corrections for urban heat island effects in studies of
global near-surface air temperature trends.  Hence, it would appear that
more detailed analyses of urban development characteristics will be needed
before we can be confident that the global temperature record of the past
century or so is properly corrected for these phenomena.  And until this is
done, it would be premature to put too much faith in that record as it
stands today.
 
Copyright 2000. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change 

=================
(10) MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD AND LITTLE ICE AGE IN CENTAL EUROPE

From CO2 Science, 29 November 2000
http://www.co2science.org/journal/2000/v3n33c2.htm).

The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in the Czech Republic: Borehole
Evidence

Reference

Bodri, L. and Cermak, V. 1999. Climate change of the last millennium
inferred from borehole temperatures: Regional patterns of climatic changes
in the Czech Republic - Part III.  Global and Planetary Change 21: 225-235.

What was done
The authors derived individual ground surface temperature histories from the
temperature-depth logs of 98 separate boreholes drilled on the territory of
the Czech Republic.

What was learned
In the words of the authors, "the existence of a medieval warm epoch lasting
from 1100-1300 A.D. is clear," which epoch they describe as "one of the
warmest postglacial times." They also note that during the main phase of the
Little Ice Age, from 1600-1700 A.D., "all investigated territory was already
subjected to massive cooling," and that "the observed recent warming may
thus be easily a natural return of climate from the previous colder
conditions back to a 'normal'."

What it means
Both the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were major climatic events,
notwithstanding the attempt of a number of climate alarmists to reduce them
to such insignificance that they do not even appear on the temperature
history of the world over the past thousand years. Why do the climate
alarmists do this? Because they want to promote the idea that the world is
currently experiencing unprecedented warming due to increases in the
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, particularly CO2. As the
results of this study clearly show, however, whatever warming may have
occurred over the past century or so may be easily nothing more than a
return to more normal conditions from the global chill of the Little Ice
Age.
 
Copyright 2000.  Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change


===============
(11) AND FINALLY: THE ENDLESS WALTZ, OR THE BEAUTY (LA FRANCE) AND THE BEAST
(UK)

By John L Daly
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/

The collapse of The Hague climate conference has brought the inevitable
recriminations.

* The environmentalists are blaming the USA for being too rich (so
  what's new?)
* The Australian Conservation Foundation holds Australia `directly
  responsible' for the collapse - because our chief delegate said nothing
  at all.
* The portly British deputy prime minister and former ship's steward, 
  blamed the French in a quite sexist attack on France's (rather
  attractive) female environment minister.
* Planting trees was a Green obsession. Now they don't want tree planting
  any more because they are sinks
* The Americans blamed all the Europeans (except France's rather
  attractive female environment minister).
* The Europeans all blamed each other (and blamed the Americans too).
* The Third World blamed the First World - still no cash coming their way.
* The Greens collapsed sobbing and wailing like spoiled brats.
* The infant 'Carbon Credits' industry got a shock, wondering if they had
  lost their forest investments.
* The Press/TV had a field day listening to all the carping - but only
  after it was all over.
* The Greenhouse scientists didn't even show up - they were too busy 
  looking over the latest super-model.
* One scientist did show up, a skeptic, and he was burned at the stake.
* The Island nations went home wondering if they would ever pull off the
  'rising seas swamping our nations' sting.
* The conference internet bulletin board began as a Greenie love-in, and
  ended in uproar because of a few spoilsport skeptics.
* The conference president tried to broker a compromise and got abused by
  everyone in the hall.
* The US chief delegate got a fruit pie in his face as a Thanksgiving
  present. Being polite and mild-mannered, he said `thank you' - 
  suggesting his colleague might like one too.
* The sandbag dyke built by the Greens to `keep out the sea' had to be
  dismantled - and tossed into the sea.
* Lots of ministers learned the latest scooter craze - a nice toy to
  carry around in the trunk of the limousine.

... And they are going to do it all over again in 6 months time in Bonn.


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